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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 2016-10-02, 04:01 a/m
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - Global financial markets will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports in the week ahead to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a hike in interest rates before the end of the year, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data in the spotlight. There is also U.S. ISM data on both manufacturing and service sector activity.

In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap as market players look for more clues on the likelihood of a December rate hike.

Elsewhere, in the U.K., traders will be awaiting reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Outside the G7, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. U.S. jobs report for September

The U.S. Labor Department will release its September nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 170,000, following an increase of 151,000 in August, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.9%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.1% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

2. U.S. ISM PMI surveys

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to release data on September manufacturing activity at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) on Monday. The gauge is expected to rise to 50.3, after falling to a seven-month low of 49.4 a month earlier.

On Wednesday, the ISM will report on September service sector activity, amid expectations for a reading of 53.0. In August, the gauge dropped to 51.4, its weakest level since February 2010.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, below indicates contraction.

3. Fed speakers

A handful of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances that may offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates in the coming months.

On Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker is due to speak on the economic outlook at 8:05AM ET (12:05GMT), while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak on monetary policy and the economy at 7:40PM ET (23:40GMT).

On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker are on tap.

Finally, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Fed Governor Lael Brainard and Kansas City Fed President Esther George are all scheduled to speak on Friday.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 10% chance of a rate hike in November, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. For December's meeting, odds were at nearly 62%.

4. U.K. September PMI's

The U.K. will release readings on September manufacturing sector activity on Monday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Tuesday and the service sector on Wednesday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to inch down to 51.1 from 53.3 a month earlier, construction activity is expected to decline slightly to 49.0 from 49.2, while a survey on Britain's giant services sector is forecast to dip to 52.0 from 52.9 last month.

The Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold last month, but indicated that it could cut interest rates again as soon as November unless the economy picks up.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

The RBA's latest interest rate decision is due on Tuesday at 3:30GMT (12:30AM ET). Most economists expect no policy change, after the central bank surprised markets in August with a 25 basis point rate cut to a historic low of 1.50% in an effort to boost sluggish inflation and spur economic activity.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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