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UPDATE 2-Bank of Canada holds rates steady, but flags household debt risk

Published 2015-12-02, 12:30 p/m
UPDATE 2-Bank of Canada holds rates steady, but flags household debt risk
USD/CAD
-

* Overnight rate remains at 0.5 pct
* Canadian dollar firms
* Analysts do not expect rate hike until Q1 2017

(Updates throughout with analyst quotes, market reaction,
growth outlook, bylines)
By Randall Palmer and Leah Schnurr
OTTAWA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada held interest
rates steady as expected on Wednesday, but warned of rising
vulnerabilities in the household sector, where debt levels have
climbed as consumers take advantage of low borrowing costs.
The Canadian dollar firmed following the central bank's
policy statement, which was seen by some market players as less
dovish than expected given news this week that the economy
shrank in September. CAD/
"There were some who thought the bank would sound a bit more
downbeat on the outlook," said Doug Porter, chief economist at
BMO Capital Markets.
The bank kept its overnight interest rate at 0.5 percent,
noting that Canadian and global growth is evolving broadly in
line with its October outlook.
While warning that vulnerabilities in the household sector
continue to edge higher, it said overall risks to financial
stability are evolving as expected.
The most recent reading of Canadian household debt relative
to income was at a record high, as the housing market continues
to rise in Toronto and Vancouver.
Some critics have said the bank is spurring Canadians to
take on more debt than they can carry, especially once rates
rise.
The central bank, which cut rates twice this year as the
economy was hit by cheap oil prices, has said there was a
greater risk in not acting to support the economy.
Analysts expect no interest rate move from the bank until a
hike in the first quarter of 2017, even as many expect the U.S.
Federal Reserve to tighten policy this month. The Bank of Canada
said on Wednesday monetary policy divergence was expected to
remain a prominent theme. CA/POLL
That remark "is a pretty robust indication that the bank has
zero intention of raising rates any time soon, even as the Fed
begins hiking," said Porter.
Following the statement, traders trimmed the already low
odds of another Canadian interest rate cut in January.
BOCWATCH
Canada was in a mild recession in the first half of 2015.
Growth rebounded in the third-quarter but September was
disappointing, suggesting a softer transition to the final
quarter.
The bank said it expects fourth-quarter growth to moderate
from the previous quarter but rise to above potential next year,
in line with October's forecast.
The bank shrugged off slightly higher bond yields in Canada,
saying that financial conditions remain accommodative. It said
Canada's "complex and lengthy adjustment" was being aided by the
U.S. recovery, lower loonie, and the bank's rate cuts.

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