Canada Conservatives vulnerable in western heartland ahead of vote

By Rod Nickel and Nia Williams
WINNIPEG, Manitoba/CALGARY, Alberta, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The
Canadian Prairies, long a Conservative Party stronghold that has
helped the party rule the country for nearly a decade, no longer
looks to be an impenetrable fortress heading into an Oct. 19
election that could be decided by a few seats.
New electoral district boundaries, a left-wing breakthrough
in Alberta, and retirements of popular local politicians leave
the Conservatives vulnerable in some areas in a tight three-way
national race against the left-leaning New Democratic Party
(NDP) and Liberal Party.
The party also faces growing voter discontent after nine
years in power, exacerbated by job cuts in Alberta's oil
industry and big provincial government revenue shortfalls in
that province and Saskatchewan triggered by the global oil rout.
"It is a big challenge," said retiring Conservative
legislator Joy Smith. "We call it the 10-year cycle. After 10
years people start saying, 'we need to look at things.'"
Not since 1980 has a Canadian prime minister won four terms,
as Prime Minister Stephen Harper is attempting.
Robert Sopuck, a Conservative lawmaker who won his seat from
Manitoba with a big margin in 2011 and is running for
re-election, expects a tight race in his province.
"Nobody said this was going to be easy."
ThreeHundredEight.com polls analyst Eric Grenier projects
that with current levels of support, the Conservatives would win
43 out of 62 Prairie districts, called ridings, with the NDP
getting 12 and the Liberals winning seven. Nationally, 338
electoral single-seat districts are up for grabs.
In 2011, the Conservatives won 51 out of 56 then available
seats in the region that includes the oil-rich and grain-growing
provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Conservative insiders say the party is resigned to losing
about four more seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but hopes to
to offset the losses by winning new Alberta districts. Much
depends on the last weeks of campaigning, Smith said, adding
that the "real campaign" will kick off next week, when many
Canadians return from vacation.
A few Prairie districts could be critical for the election's
outcome and may decide whether any party can win enough seats to
govern alone, said Curtis Brown, vice-president of polling firm
Probe Research.
Nationally, a recent poll by Ipsos put the left-leaning NDP
first with 33 percent support, ahead of the Liberals with 30
percent and the ruling Conservatives with 29 percent.
With the race so close, the Prairies shape up as one of the
key battlegrounds as rivals challenge the Conservatives, who in
2011 dominated the Prairies, British Columbia and vote-rich
Ontario. Liberal organizers say leader Justin Trudeau will
devote greater attention to the Prairies while one NDP official
said the party was aiming to snatch up to 11 seats in Alberta
and Saskatchewan.
The seeds of Conservative self-doubt were sown in May when
the New Democrats swept Alberta's provincial election, ending
the Conservatives' 44-year reign. Canadians do not always vote
for the same parties nationally and at the provincial level, and
the NDP benefited from a split in right-wing vote between the
Conservatives and a party that only operates on a provincial
level.
Still, the NDP and the Liberals look to gain ground.
In Saskatchewan, changes to voting districts that created
some urban-only ridings seem to favor the NDP.
New Democrats typically do well in the province's two
largest cities, Regina and Saskatoon, but came away empty-handed
in 2011 as rural Conservative supporters outnumbered urban votes
in election districts.
This time, redrawn districts should give the party at least
two seats, said NDP organizer John Tzupa.
The Liberals, who won one Saskatchewan seat in 2011, expect
more wins there, and may be poised for gains in Manitoba's
capital Winnipeg.
"There is no question that Mr. Trudeau is going to make the
Prairies and the West a larger chunk of the national campaign,"
said Ralph Goodale, a Liberal running for re-election in Regina.