(Corrects the reporting day for Costco Wholesale to Tuesday)
WEEKAHEAD
Markets enter a busy week with jobs data, several Federal Reserve speakers and the possibility
of more brinksmanship in Washington over a potential government shutdown - though that looks
like it will be avoided. Markets were unable to hang onto a rally on Friday that was initially
prompted by Janet Yellen's assurance that the Fed will raise rates in 2015, and it suggests an
overall ongoing level of concern that we're well into a period of steady, ongoing volatility
that won't abate for some time.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard
give welcome remarks before the Third Annual Community Banking Research and Policy Conference on
Wednesday. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley speaks before the
Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association Liquidity Forum in New York on the same
day. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams speaks on the
economic outlook before a Salt Lake Area community leaders event. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
President Eric Rosengren gives welcome and opening remarks before the "Macroprudential Monetary
Policy" conference on Friday. Other speakers at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston include Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota, Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley
Fischer. Separately, ECB president Mario Draghi speaks on the occasion of the awarding of the
Atlantic Council Global Citizens Award in Washington, D.C on Thursday.
The Conference Board on Tuesday issues its index of consumer attitudes for September. Economists
project consumer confidence to have slipped to 96, compared with 101.5 last month. The
single-family home prices for July is due to be released on the same day. The July's S&P/Case
Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas is expected to have gained 5.2 percent
year-over-year, a bit quicker than the 5 percent rate in June. The ADP National Employment
Report for September is due to be released on Wednesday. Economists estimate a gain of 195,000
jobs this month. On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management issues its index of national
factory activity for September. The index, which reflects the pace of growth of manufacturing
sector, is projected to have slipped to 50.6 from 51.1 last month. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday
are expected to have gained 203,000 in September.
On Tuesday, warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) is likely to report fourth-quarter
sales below analysts average estimate. Quarterly comparable store sales, including fuel and
foreign currency impact, shrank for the first time in almost six years in the third quarter. The
strength of the U.S. dollar could hurt sales and result in comparable sales falling again,
analysts said. The company gets 30 percent of its revenue from outside the United States.
However, the company could benefit from higher fuel margins in April like Kroger (NYSE:KR).
Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU) is expected to report fourth-quarter profit below estimates on Thursday.
The chipmaker has taken a battering as the prices of chips used in computers fall across the
board. Micron makes both dynamic random access memory chips, used mostly in personal computers,
and NAND memory chips for storing music, pictures and other data on smartphones, cameras and
other mobile devices. But with analysts saying that the sector will get back on its feet only
after demand picks up in the first half of 2016, investors and analysts will be looking for any
kind of positive commentary on chip prices and inventory. The company was also the subject of a
much-scrutinized $23 billion takeover bid from China's Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd.
Business research firm IHS Inc is expected to report higher revenue in the third quarter on
Tuesday, helped by growth in its subscription business. The company, which raised its full-year
revenue forecast last quarter, has said it would focus on "larger" acquisitions, and expanding
margins. The company has been looking to its industrials business, the second-biggest revenue
contributor, to offset weakness in the energy business.
Surgery Partners Inc's IPO is expected to price on Friday in the $23-$26/share range, valuing
the company at up to $1.25 billion. The company will raise about $325 million at the mid-point
of the range. The Tennessee-based, H.I.G Capital-owned company operates 94 ambulatory surgery
centers and five hospitals in 28 states. Surgery Partners' competitors include Surgical Care
Affiliates, AmSurg Corp and United Surgical Partners International, which recently struck a
merger deal with Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC).
The main economic event in Canada next week will be the monthly gross domestic product report,
with economists forecasting the economy grew 0.2 percent in July. On Wednesday, the data should
help underscore expectations by both policymakers and economists that the economy regained
momentum in the third quarter. Canada was in a mild recession in the first half of the year as
it was hit by the drop in the price of oil, a major export for the country.
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
The Commerce Department releases U.S. consumer spending data for August. The figure is estimated
to have increased 0.4 percent last month after a 0.3 percent gain in July. Economists also
expect the monthly core price index for consumer spending to have risen 0.1 percent. Personal
income is forecast to have gained 0.4 percent in August. (0830/1230)
Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo participates in "Capital Regulation Across
Financial Intermediaries" panel before the Banque de France's "Financial Regulation - Stability
versus Uniformity: A Focus on Non-Bank Actors" Conference. (0515/0915) Meanwhile, Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and
monetary policy before the Marquette University Business Leaders Forum, "A Perspective on
Monetary Policy," in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (1330/1730) Also, Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook before the UCLA Anderson
Forecast for the Nation, State and L.A. (1700/2100)
LIVECHAT: FX WEEK AHEAD with Reuters FX analyst Jeremy Boulton
Join Reuters FX analyst Jeremy Boulton for a chat about foreign exchange markets and whether the
dollar will build on gains this week made after Fed chair Janet Yellen signaled U.S. rates would
head higher before the end of the year. (0600/1000) To join the Global Markets Forum, click
here: https://bit.ly/1kTxdKD
(All references to a company's results expected to beat or miss analysts average estimates are
according to Thomson Reuters StarMine, unless mentioned otherwise)