By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Bank of Canada meets for its next policy meeting today, September 7, with the monetary policy announcement expected at 10 a.m Following an outsized 100 bps move in July, economists expect the Bank to raise rates 75 bps today and continue its balance sheet runoff.
At its July meeting, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 100bps, stating that an increase of that magnitude was "very unusual," but required in these unusual circumstances - specifically decades high inflation.
The BoC at the time, and BoC governor Tiff Macklem in a recent OpEd, have committed to acting “more forcefully” if needed, and that the Bank of Canada’s job is “not yet done” and will not be done until inflation is back at its 2% target - which, empathically, it is not. In July, the CPI rose 7.6%Y on a moderating from 8.1% in June.
Economists now widely expect the BoC to raise its rate by 75 bps, taking the policy rate to 3.25% - a level that the Canadian central bank has long hinted at as being necessary by year’s end to effectively begin combating inflation. Swap pricing also implies that a 75bps move for today is almost entirely priced in.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts further make the case for a 75 bps move from the BoC today, noting that “Another 100bp hike would boost CAD broadly as the market would price in a significantly higher terminal rate. Inversely, a 50bp hike would weigh on CAD.”
Analysts at Morgan Stanley also expect “The tone of Governor Macklem's press conference to provide an important update on the Bank's sense of urgency to move further into restrictive territory to bring inflation back to target”, and forward guidance on its next move in October.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe “If Governor Macklem continues to emphasize that the economy continues to "be running hot" and/or stresses the need for the Bank to "cool things down" in terms of economic activity, we believe this will keep pressure on the BoC to move the policy rate further into restrictive territory, with an upside risk of another 75bp at its October meeting.
Alternatively, if the Bank further indicates that hiking by 75bp is "highly unusual," and/or the Bank sees signs that things are "cooling down," the BoC would be inclined to hike by 25bp in October, in line with our forecasts”