CANADA FX DEBT-C$ tumbles to 7-month low as soft data fuels rate cut bets

Published 2016-10-21, 04:43 p/m
© Reuters.  CANADA FX DEBT-C$ tumbles to 7-month low as soft data fuels rate cut bets
USD/CAD
-
BNPP
-
CL
-
CA2YT=RR
-
CA10YT=RR
-
USDIDX
-

(Adds analyst quotes and details on weekly performance, CFTC data, free trade talks and updates prices)

* Canadian dollar at C$1.3327, or 75.04 U.S. cents

* Loonie touches its weakest since March 16 at C$1.3354

* Speculators increase C$ bearish bets to the most since March

* Bond prices higher across the yield curve

* Canada-U.S. 2-year spread hits widest in 4 months

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened to a seven-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as weaker-than-expected domestic data fueled interest rate cut bets and the greenback made broad-based gains.

For the week, the loonie fell 1.4 percent, its largest one-week decline since early May, according to Reuters data.

A drop in Canadian retail sales in August and cooler-than-anticipated annual inflation in September reinforced speculation the Bank of Canada may lower interest rates again, after the bank acknowledged this week it had considered cutting. is definitely more focus on the Bank of Canada, therefore more focus on the data. So even a small downside miss seems to have had a disproportionate impact on the currency," said Daniel Katzive, head of FX strategy North America at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP).

The implied probability of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut by mid-2017 jumped to more than 40 percent from around 30 percent before the data, overnight index swaps data showed. BOCWATCH

"Not all the move is reflecting simply what is going on in Canada, because the (U.S.) dollar is stronger pretty much against everything," Katzive said.

The U.S. dollar .DXY climbed to a 8-month high against a basket of major currencies.

The Canadian dollar CAD=D4 ended at C$1.3327 to the greenback, or 75.04 U.S. cents, weaker than Thursday's close of C$1.3222, or 75.63 U.S. cents.

The currency's strongest level of the session was C$1.3226, while it touched its weakest since March 16 at C$1.3354.

Losses for the loonie came despite gains for crude oil, one of Canada's major exports. U.S. crude CLc1 prices settled 22 cents higher at $50.85 a barrel. O/R

Speculators increased bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the most since March, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. Net short Canadian dollar positions rose to 14,298 contracts in the week ended Oct. 18 from 11,704 in the prior week.

Canadian government bond prices were higher across the yield curve, with the two-year CA2YT=RR up 6.5 Canadian cents to yield 0.52 percent and the benchmark 10-year CA10YT=RR rising 44 Canadian cents to yield 1.126 percent.

The 2-year yield fell 4.1 basis points further below its U.S. equivalent, to leave a spread of -31.2 basis points, its widest since June 2, indicating outperformance for Canadian government bonds.

Canada's trade minister walked out of talks in Belgium, declaring that the European Union was incapable of sealing a planned transatlantic free trade deal designed to boost growth in both economies.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.