By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart today, as the greenback rose across the board in the wake of uncertainty following a too close to call midterm election in the US. The Canadian dollar was also pressured by a slide in crude prices, after U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected and on concerns that a rebound in COVID-19 cases in top importer China would hurt fuel demand.
On a technical level, analysts at Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) note that “Narrow gains leave USDCAD building a potential bear flag pattern (losses resume below 1.3420 intraday). Resistance is 1.3490/00.”
“Broader price signals remain USD-bearish, with the noted Head and Shoulders reversal on the daily chart targeting a measured move decline to 1.30 in the next few weeks."
Analysts at Scotiabank also note that sentiment remains bearish in options markets, with “a sizable short base reflected in recent CFTC data”.
However, they note that “Positioning and sentiment data tend to be reactive” , and the short base “Is not necessarily a block on a CAD rebound. Rather, in the event of a snap rally in the CAD—that may be developing now—positioning could work in its favour as short positions are squeezed out, fueling additional gains.
In the longer term, the analysts see the pair at 1.35 by year end, and into the 1.30 area by the middle of next year as risk-appetite recovers, and the Fed begins to reach the end of its rate hike cycle.
The Canadian dollar has so far been pressured by the Bank of Canada’s closing in on its terminal rate after front-loading its policy tightening, while the US Federal Reserve remains positioned to take rates higher than the Bank of Canada, and hold them there for longer.
Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to top out at an interest rate of 4.25% and pause early in 2023, pressured by a recession in the first half of 2023 now widely expected in Canada. The US Fed meanwhile is likely to hold rates above 5% for most of next year.
Up next, tomorrow is set to be a big day for the pair, US CPI data due, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem schedule to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market.