Investing.com -- The upcoming September 10 debate is shaping up to be a key moment in the U.S. presidential race, particularly for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a note from Citi analysts on Monday.
With recent polls indicating a highly competitive election, the bank says the debate will be crucial in shaping voter opinion.
Citi highlights that the latest New York Times/Siena and CNN swing state polls show the election is still "a toss-up."
They explain that nationally, Harris holds a narrow lead of about 2 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages, but this slim margin may not be enough for her to secure an electoral college victory.
Citi adds that in key swing states, Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while former President Donald Trump is ahead in Arizona. Meanwhile, the race is tight in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
" The debate will be critical to Harris’ campaign and polls and probability markets will likely be very reactive to her performance," the analysts emphasize, noting that 28% of likely voters want to know more about Harris, compared to just 9% for Trump, according to the NYT/Siena poll.
Citi notes the first debate will offer Harris the opportunity to sway undecided voters and address concerns that could make a difference in these closely contested states.
Meanwhile, the bank says prediction markets reflect the uncertainty of the race, with Harris holding a slight edge over Trump, but the gap has been narrowing.
Citi also notes that this election cycle's polling margins are much smaller than in 2020, with Harris leading Trump by less than 1 percentage point in swing state aggregations.
Overall, Citi notes, "various estimations indicate that policies proposed by both candidates would increase the deficit relative to the current baseline."