Stock Story -
Young adult apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) reported Q3 CY2024 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 14.4% year on year to $1.21 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $2.50 per share was 6.4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF) Q3 CY2024 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.21 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.18 billion (14.4% year-on-year growth, 2.7% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.50 vs analyst estimates of $2.35 (6.4% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $218.8 million vs analyst estimates of $206.2 million (18.1% margin, 6.1% beat)
- Q4 sales guidance of 5-7% growth (slight beat vs expectations of 5% growth)
- Raised full year sales guidance to 14-15% growth (12-13% previously)
- Operating Margin: 14.8%, up from 13.1% in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales rose 16% year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $7.89 billion
Company OverviewFounded as an outdoor and sporting brand, Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) evolved to become a specialty retailer that sells its own brand of fashionable clothing to young adults.
Apparel Retailer
Apparel sales are not driven so much by personal needs but by seasons, trends, and innovation, and over the last few decades, the category has shifted meaningfully online. Retailers that once only had brick-and-mortar stores are responding with omnichannel presences. The online shopping experience continues to improve and retail foot traffic in places like shopping malls continues to stall, so the evolution of clothing sellers marches on.Sales Growth
A company’s long-term performance is an indicator of its overall quality. While any business can experience short-term success, top-performing ones enjoy sustained growth for multiple years.Abercrombie and Fitch is a small retailer, which sometimes brings disadvantages compared to larger competitors that benefit from economies of scale.
As you can see below, Abercrombie and Fitch grew its sales at a tepid 6% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years (we compare to 2019 to normalize for COVID-19 impacts), but to its credit, it opened new stores and increased sales at existing, established locations.
This quarter, Abercrombie and Fitch reported year-on-year revenue growth of 14.4%, and its $1.21 billion of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 2.7%.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 5.3% over the next 12 months, similar to its five-year rate. This projection is commendable and suggests the market sees some success for its newer products.
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Store Performance
Number of StoresA retailer’s store count influences how much it can sell and how quickly revenue can grow.Over the last two years, Abercrombie and Fitch opened new stores quickly, averaging 1.9% annual growth. This was faster than the broader consumer retail sector.
When a retailer opens new stores, it usually means it’s investing for growth because demand is greater than supply, especially in areas where consumers may not have a store within reasonable driving distance.
Note that Abercrombie and Fitch reports its store count intermittently, so some data points are missing in the chart below.
Same-Store SalesThe change in a company's store base only tells one side of the story. The other is the performance of its existing locations and e-commerce sales, which informs management teams whether they should expand or downsize their physical footprints. Same-store sales provides a deeper understanding of this issue because it measures organic growth at shops open for at least a year.
Abercrombie and Fitch has been one of the most successful retailers over the last two years thanks to skyrocketing demand within its existing locations. On average, the company has posted exceptional year-on-year same-store sales growth of 13.2%. This performance suggests its rollout of new stores is beneficial for shareholders. We like this backdrop because it gives Abercrombie and Fitch multiple ways to win: revenue growth can come from new stores, e-commerce, or increased foot traffic and higher sales per customer at existing locations.
In the latest quarter, Abercrombie and Fitch’s same-store sales rose 16% year on year. This growth was an acceleration from its historical levels, which is always an encouraging sign.