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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Published 2016-10-16, 03:54 a/m
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting for fresh clues on the future path of the region's massive stimulus program.

Elsewhere, China is to release what will be closely watched third-quarter growth data amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy.

U.S. inflation data will also be in the spotlight, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., market participants will be looking ahead to reports on consumer prices, employment and retail sales for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Currency traders will also be awaiting a central bank decision in Canada on Wednesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. European Central Bank Policy Meeting

The European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision is due at 11:45GMT (7:45AM ET) on Thursday, with most of the focus likely to be on President Mario Draghi's press conference 45 minutes after the announcement.

The ECB is not expected to move on rates, but Draghi could offer fresh clues on the time frame of its €80 billion monthly asset-buying program, due to run out in March.

A recent Reuters poll of economists showed that a stable but lackluster economic outlook will push the ECB to extend its stimulus program by year-end, although such a move will likely be reserved for December’s meeting when the central bank’s updated quarterly projections will be available.

2. China Q3 GDP

China is scheduled to release data on third-quarter gross domestic product at 2:00GMT on Wednesday (10:00PM ET Tuesday). The report is expected to show the world's second largest economy grew 6.7% in the three months to September. The economy grew by a similar amount in the second quarter and if confirmed, it could be a sign that growth in China is finally bottoming out.

The Asian nation will also publish data on September industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales along with the GDP report.

3. U.S. Inflation for September

The Commerce Department will publish September inflation figures at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) Tuesday. Market analysts expect consumer prices to ease up 0.3%, while core inflation is forecast to increase 0.2%.

On a yearly base, core CPI is projected to climb 2.3%. Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. The central bank usually tries to aim for 2% core inflation or less.

Rising inflation would be a catalyst to push the Fed toward raising interest rates.

4. U.K. CPI, Employment & Retail Sales

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for September at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.9%, after increasing 0.6% a month earlier.

At 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) Wednesday, the ONS will publish the monthly jobs report. The claimant count change is expected to rise by 3,000 in September, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.9% in the three months to August. Wage growth including bonuses is forecast to rise 2.3%.

On Thursday, the ONS will produce a report on September retail sales at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET), with analysts expecting an increase of 0.3%, following a drop of 0.2% in the preceding month.

The Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold last month, but indicated that it could cut interest rates again as soon as November in a bid to buffer the economy from a 'hard Brexit'.

5. Bank of Canada rate decision

The Bank of Canada's latest interest rate decision is due at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT) on Wednesday, with most experts expecting the central bank to stand pat on rates.

Still, with energy prices persistently low, global trade generally weak, and U.S. demand relatively soft, Canadian rates are likely to stay low for even longer than earlier thought.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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