Daily FX trade more like $3 trillion than 5 -CLS

Published 2017-03-13, 05:00 a/m
© Reuters.  Daily FX trade more like $3 trillion than 5 -CLS
NXGN
-
TRI
-

* CLS switches to different headline figures on market size

* Leaves out double-counted and internal bank trades

* Says aim is to use methodology similar to central banks

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - The world's biggest financial market may be only half as big as you thought it was.

That's the suggestion of a change in methodology by global settlement bank CLS which leaves out various double-counted and internal bank trades that for years have inflated estimates of the size of the global currency market.

CLS, a vital piece of FX infrastructure for the past decade, has long reported numbers of around $5 trillion which broadly match those given by the two triennial surveys conducted since 2013 by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and seen as the industry benchmark.

But the similarity of those figures has always been purely coincidental, says CLS chief executive David Puth, and the U.S.-based bank has now chosen to report a different, lower, number that it feels better represents a business that generates billions in profit for banks.

As of February, CLS puts its estimate of executed trades it settles at $1.5 trillion a day.

It estimates that adds up to a bit more than a 50 percent market share, putting the whole daily market's broader value at less than $3 trillion a day when allowing for currencies and trades for which it does not cover the settlement risk.

Under the bonnet, nothing has changed, Puth says. Separate estimates still put the input values processed by the CLS settlement service on a daily basis, including both sides of each trade and the differing legs of FX swap trades, at a little under $5 trillion.

But the decision by the company to switch focus, and its explanation of why, suggest that the lower figure may be a better representation of the reality of how bankers should think about an increasingly automated business.

"The change in our reporting methodology brings our monthly data in line with the reporting conventions for BIS, trading platforms and central banks, allowing for more accurate comparisons with their data," Puth said. "This will present a clearer view of the external FX market."

The two key remaining differences with the methodology used by the BIS and other central bank surveys also go further in explaining the discrepancy between the $5 trillion and the volumes of trade on third party trading platforms run by Thomson Reuters TRI.TO , NEX Group NXGN.L , Bloomberg and others.

One, the company says, is hundreds of billions in completely internal trades which take place between different desks or units of banks and are not subject to settlement risk.

The other is the double-counting of similarly huge volumes of prime broker trades where banks act on behalf of major hedge fund and other investors and where both the original and a separate "give-up" trade is counted.

One question is whether some or all of these trades generate any risk, profit or loss and hence their value in discussions of the market as a business proposition or sector in which banks and others put capital. (Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.