By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, March 15 (Reuters) - Brexit cheerleaders are heading
for a cold shoulder if they think the mother country can waltz
into the warm embrace of her English-speaking siblings and win
free trade deals with them.
Supporters of Britain's exit from the European Union argue
that "family ties" could compensate for the partial loss of the
Continent's 444 million customers.
David Davis, a Conservative MP and die-hard eurosceptic,
outlined their ambitions in a recent exhaustive speech.
"This is an opportunity to renew our strong relationships
with Commonwealth and Anglosphere countries," he said.
"These parts of the world are growing faster than Europe. We
share history, culture and language. We even share similar legal
systems. The usual barriers to trade are largely absent."
What is also absent is motive, at least on the part of
former colonies Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
After all, Britain's entry into the Common Market in 1973
was widely considered a betrayal at the time, upending decades
of tradition and a host of tariff agreements. Australia was
especially hard hit, and resentment still lingers.
"The 1970s were a bloodbath for the dairy industry," said
Stephen Henty, a dairy farmer in Victoria. "There was no market
for calves so we were forced to shoot calves and bury them
because they weren't worth anything."
But that was then.
"We were pretty much tied to the UK's apron strings and when
they pulled the pin, we suffered," he adds. "We have a lot more
markets where our products are sold into now. The UK leaving the
EU wouldn't have any impact this time."
Just a glance at trade flows speaks volumes. Britain takes
only 2.5 percent of Australia's exports, China more than 31
percent. Around 5 percent of New Zealand's exports go to the UK,
while Canada sends less than 3 percent of its export there.
The detachment goes both ways, with Canada 19th on the table
of export destinations for the UK and Australia a rung behind.
That might mean there is room for growth, but it is not
clear what they would trade in. Australia's biggest single
export is iron ore, but Britain has no steel industry.
New Zealand used to be synonymous with butter and cheese to
British consumers. Now, it is Chinese babies that guzzle much of
New Zealand's milk output.
EVERYONE BUT THE UK
The priorities show clearly in trade diplomacy.
In just the past year, Australia has sealed free trade deals
with China, South Korea and Japan. Yet it only began talks on an
agreement with the European Union in November, a process that
routinely takes years.
New Zealand has inked trade deals across Asia and was the
first developed country to sign with China but it has not struck
a single deal with a European nation.
Canada is so enmeshed in NAFTA, a North American trade bloc,
that the United States takes three quarters of its exports.
All three recently concluded the 12-member Trans-Pacific
Partnership Agreement (TPP), a wide-ranging pact that took seven
years of effort and much political will to finalise.
For all the shared history, Britain is a fading presence in
its former colonies. Australia's Prime Minister is an avowed
Republican. New Zealand is voting on whether to remake its flag
without a Union Jack.
It's possible a trade deal with a British Tory government
might not be an urgent priority for Canada's new left-leaning,
French speaking leader, Justin Trudeau.
"If anything, the UK might actually lose investment from
Canada and lose Canadian interest if they're not part of the
European market because the European market is much bigger than
the UK," said Jayson Myers, chief economist at the Canadian
Manufacturers and Exporters association.
"I don't really see a lot of interest in just doing business
with the UK."
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Trade between Britain and "Anglosphere" countries, then and now
http://tmsnrt.rs/1RKB8UD
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