(Adds closing prices)
Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on Thursday on forecasts for the weather to remain hot and air conditioning demand high over the next two weeks, a slowdown in output and an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
That price increase came despite a report showing an expected, bigger-than-usual storage build last week when the weather was milder than now.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities injected 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Aug. 7.
That was in line with the 57-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 44 bcf. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 3.0 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.182 per million British thermal units.
Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 40% jump in prices at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in the Netherlands so far in August helped pull U.S. gas up about 21% this month. That made it profitable for more U.S. LNG cargoes to go to Europe.
U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July. LNG exports rising and the weather expected to remain hot through the end of August, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will average around 89.6 bcfd this week and next.
U.S. output, meanwhile, is on track to fall about 1.8 bcfd to a two-week low of 87.8 bcfd over the past three days due mostly to maintenance work in West Virginia.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Aug 7
Jul 31
Jul 31
average
(Actual)
(Actual)
Jul 31
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+58
+33
+51
+44
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
1
2
1
4
5 U.S. GFS CDDs
215
213
211
192
181 U.S. GFS TDDs
216
215
212
196
186
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
88.3
88.9
88.9
92.6
79.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.8
8.0 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
95.0
95.7
95.7
100.4
87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.9
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.8
5.6
5.7
5.4
4.4 U.S. LNG Exports
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.1
2.0 U.S. Commercial
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.5 U.S. Residential
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3 U.S. Power Plant
40.5
41.7
41.1
42.5
36.6 U.S. Industrial
21.4
21.5
21.6
21.5
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
76.5
77.8
77.2
78.5
71.4 Total U.S. Demand
88.2
89.6
89.5
90.9
80.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.05
2.19
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.70
1.96
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.85
2.80
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.15
1.25
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.92
1.96
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.56
1.85
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.01
2.61
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.73
1.39
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
37.25
41.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
32.25
33.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
97.00
26.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
22.75
17.13
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
64.50
36.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
66.00
36.00