Quiver Quantitative - The U.S. housing market, particularly new single-family homes, experienced a slight dip in sales this February, despite consistent year-on-year growth. A report from the Commerce Department highlighted a 0.3% decrease in sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000 units. This decline coincided with a rise in mortgage rates, though the overall trend in new home sales remains robust, supported by a lack of previously owned houses on the market. Interestingly, the median new house price dropped to its lowest in over two and a half years, suggesting that builders are actively working to enhance affordability by offering incentives, price cuts, and building smaller homes.
Economists view this stabilization in the housing market positively, attributing it to homebuilders' shift towards more affordable housing solutions. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes totaling 525 basis points since March 2022, the new homes market has shown resilience, bolstered by the scarcity of pre-owned homes for sale. This resilience is further underlined by a surge in home resales to a year-high in February, though supply constraints continue to keep house prices elevated, impacting homeownership affordability.
Market Overview: -New single-family home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell 0.3% in February despite remaining 5.9% higher year-on-year. -The median new home price reached its lowest point in over 2.5 years, dropping 7.6% compared to February 2023. -Rising mortgage rates are causing some hesitation, but overall housing activity remains stable due to the ongoing shortage of existing homes.
Key Points: -Sales & Prices: New home sales saw a slight monthly decline, but the annual trend reflects continued demand. Prices are falling, with the median cost reaching its lowest point since mid-2021. -Market Dynamics: Builders are adjusting by offering incentives and constructing smaller, more affordable homes. The lack of existing homes continues to drive buyers towards new options.
Looking Ahead: -Builder Confidence: Increased confidence reported by the National Association of Home Builders suggests optimism for future sales. -Potential Rate Cuts: The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering rates later in the year could further stimulate demand. -Supply Chain and Inflation: Continued monitoring of supply chain issues and inflation is necessary to assess their impact on building costs and affordability.
Regionally, the Northeast and Midwest saw declines in new home sales, while the South and West witnessed increases. Economists remain optimistic about the future of new home sales, expecting a rise over the coming years. The National Association of Home Builders' recent survey echoes this sentiment, showing increased future sales expectations and rising interest from prospective buyers. This positive outlook is despite fluctuating mortgage rates, which climbed as high as 6.94% in late February.
The market's response to these housing trends has been mixed, with Wall Street trading lower and the dollar strengthening against other currencies. Looking ahead, the influx of new homes into the market – the highest since November 2022 – could further temper house price inflation. With houses under construction representing a significant portion of the inventory, the market anticipates an easing in prices, potentially making new homes more appealing. This situation, however, raises questions about the duration for which builders can sustain the current rate incentives.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative