Proactive Investors - Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to report its third quarter vehicle deliveries on October 2, with investors expecting this to fall anywhere in the range of 465,000 to 480,000.
Analysts at UBS have raised their delivery expectations to 470,000, which they noted is towards the lower end of estimates.
This is up from the approximately 421,000 deliveries they used in their model as a placeholder following Tesla’s second quarter earnings.
“Still, we believe the stock tends to react more towards actual results versus the headline (consensus) figure,” they wrote in a note to clients.
In the quarter to date, per Autodata, Tesla delivered 106,000 vehicles in July and August, up 7% from the first two months of Q2 and down 10% from the first two months of the year-ago quarter.
The automaker continues to use financing promotions, the bank’s analysts noted.
“Tesla is still using financing promotions to help move the metal, including a Model Y/3 with $0 due at delivery and 2.49% APR (36 to 72 months for MY, 36 to 60 months for M3) or 1.99% financing with $4,000 down,” they wrote.
“Not US but in North America, Tesla also introduced 1.99% financing in Canada which could help sales there.”
Analysts added that while the focus of Tesla's release tends to fall on its auto deliveries, the company now also reports GWh of energy storage deployed.
The consensus stands at 9 GWh, compared to 9.4 GWh in the second quarter of 2024.
“We believe consensus expectations look elevated as we remind investors energy storage deployments are lumpy and 2Q24 was by far a record quarter,” they wrote.
“We don't have a great way to 'check' storage deployments (especially considering accounting treatment for recognition), but UBS is a shade under 8GHw.”
Following Tesla’s Q3 deliveries announcement, the immediate focus will shift to the company’s Robotaxi event being held on October 10. The US election will also be important as Tesla is a major beneficiary of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) policy.
The analysts have a ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla. Their price target of $197 implies an almost 22% decrease from the company’s current share price of $251.50.