UBS analysts are bullish on European equities relative to US stocks. They believe Europe may enter a "goldilocks" period with improving economic growth and rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB).
This contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which might maintain higher rates for longer to address inflation. UBS' "Market Cookbook" analysis suggests this scenario could favor European equities and certain sectors within Europe.
Beyond the macro outlook, the report highlights several specific investment ideas within European equities.
One area of opportunity is in UK small and mid-cap stocks (SMIDs). These stocks have underperformed significantly since the 2016 Brexit referendum and haven't fully recovered.
However, UBS says recent tax cuts, potential rate cuts, and the possibility of further fiscal spending and EU alignment make UK SMIDs attractive. Combined with improving earnings, UBS sees them as offering growth at a reasonable price.
European utilities are another area of interest. After a decade of negative earnings growth, the sector is poised for a turnaround. UBS forecasts high single-digit growth driven by rising investment spending, revenue growth, and regulated margins. The sector's low valuation relative to its projected growth makes it particularly appealing.
The defense sector is also on UBS' radar. European defense stocks have been outperforming US AI stocks since the Russia-Ukraine war began.
UBS also favors European media companies over food and staples retailers. In an improving economic climate, European media companies are expected to see strong performance driven by advertising spending and music streaming.
Finally, while not strictly a European play, UBS includes long gold miners in their recommendations. Their model suggests that gold miners could benefit from a potential "stagflation" scenario in the US, supported by continued onshore gold buying in China.