Quiver Quantitative - In the upcoming meeting on September 19-20, the US Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Chairman Jerome Powell, is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach, steering clear of signaling an end to the current cycle of interest rate hikes. This sentiment echoes the words of Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) who categorically mentioned the improbability of the Fed intimating a halt in the rate hikes. This decision diverges sharply from the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent stance, where they hinted at a potential culmination of rate increments, leading to a drop in the euro and a bonds rally. The nuanced approach of the Fed appears to be grounded in the sustained economic growth in the US and persistent inflation rates exceeding the 2% benchmark.
Contrastingly, the European Central Bank has adopted a more dovish approach, with ECB President Christine Lagarde articulating the current phase of "very, very sluggish growth" in the Euro area. The ECB's recent policy alterations, characterized by a quarter-percentage-point rate hike, has stirred speculations that the European policy makers may have reached the peak of rate increments, with a focus shifting more towards assessing the duration for which the elevated rates would be maintained. On the other hand, Powell maintains a vigilant stance, acknowledging the necessity to closely monitor economic indicators to ensure a balanced approach towards taming inflation and fostering growth.
Looking ahead, the US policy makers anticipate revising their economic growth forecasts substantially in the projections slated for release post the upcoming meeting. These optimistic predictions, pivoting from the median prediction of a 1% expansion noted in June, underline the Fed's strategy to keep a tight rein on inflation, while nurturing the economy's robust trajectory. Analysts, including Derek Tang from LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics, emphasize the benefit in Powell retaining flexibility in the policy approach, rather than committing to a cessation in rate hikes this September.
Furthermore, a nuanced message is anticipated in Powell's post-meeting press conference, highlighting the strides made by the Fed in curbing inflation. This approach resonates with the observations made by other economists including Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, who sees a deliberate pause by Powell in the hope of averting further hikes, keeping the door ajar for potential adjustments based on the evolving economic landscape. This narrative underscores a significant deviation in the strategies adopted by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, spotlighting the latter's proactive stance compared to the guarded optimism exhibited by Powell and his team.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative