Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday ahead of a federal report expected to show a slightly bigger than usual weekly storage build as a decline in production and forecasts confirming a cold snap will blanket much of the country in mid- to late-December.
Analysts said utilities likely pulled 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 6. That compares with a withdrawal of 75 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 68 bcf. EIA/GAS
If correct, the decrease would cut stockpiles to 3.515 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.5% below the five-year average of 3.532 tcf for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Thursday.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 3.7 cents, or 1.7%, to $2.280 per million British thermal units at 7:40 a.m. EST. On Wednesday, the contract settled about one cent over its close on Dec. 9, which was the lowest settle since Oct. 11.
Analysts said stocks would likely return to a surplus over the five-year average during the next month or so as rising production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage.
Gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to a five-week low of 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday due to declines in several states, down from 94.8 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 95.4 bcfd last week and a record high of 96.3 bcfd on Nov. 30.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states will turn from warmer than normal now to colder from Dec. 16-23 before turning warmer again from Dec. 24-27. That is similar to Wednesday's forecasts.
With cooler weather coming, data provider Refinitiv projected demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise to an average of 127.6 bcfd next week from 117.9 bcfd this week.
That is a little lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday of 128.2 bcfd for next week and 117.9 bcfd for this week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slipped to 7.9 bcfd on Wednesday from 8.1 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.6 bcfd last week and an all-time high of 8.2 bcfd on Dec. 8 with the ramp up of new liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana. traders said Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Inc's KMI.N Elba Island LNG export plant in Georgia could send out its first cargo this week. flows to Mexico, meanwhile, rose to 5.8 bcfd on Wednesday from 5.5 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Week ended
Week ended Year ago
Five-year
Dec. 6
Dec. 6
average
(Forecast) 29(Actual)
Dec. 6
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day Prior Year
10-Year
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
432 U.S. GFS CDDs
3 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week
Five-Year
last year
Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.4 U.S. Imports from Canada
8.5 U.S. LNG Imports
0.3 Total U.S. Supply
103.5
103.0
103.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.5 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.6 U.S. LNG Exports
1.6 U.S. Commercial
14.1 U.S. Residential
23.8 U.S. Power Plant
23.4 U.S. Industrial
23.4 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.7 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
100.9
110.4
101.0
92.2 Total U.S. Demand
115.2
117.9
127.6
113.8
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
40.00
37.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
33.00
29.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
22.50
23.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
37.00
41.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
27.25
23.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
40.75
43.50