This week will be the capstone of 2023 because whatever happens this week will be a send-off message as 2024 approaches. This week will feature CPI, PPI, and retail sales on the...
As macro investors, we are often inundated with flashy headlines, and recently Japan has been front and center. Yet with all this noise, it’s easy to miss the forest for the...
By Benjamin Schroeder Payrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor...
The Fed last raised rates in July and we think that marked the peak. There is growing evidence that tight monetary policy and restrictive credit conditions are having the desired...
For much of the past month and a half, the S&P 500 has rallied, recovering all of the lost ground from the summer/fall correction. The market is currently trading at just below its...
By Benjamin Schroeder The 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation...
Oil prices failed to capitalize on recent production cuts as the market prices in unprecedented US exports. Last week, OPEC+ members agreed on a new voluntary output cut...
After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking rates, inflation has declined meaningfully...
By Benjamin Schroeder The fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll...
Stocks finished flat, with the S&P 500 falling just six bps. Most of the weaknesses yesterday came in the equal-weighted S&P 500, with the RSP ETF falling by almost 85...