The Australian dollar has extended the robust bull trend of 2016 versus the US$, and particularly from early March into latter Q1. This reinforces the break through the peak from Q4 2015, to maintain a bullish AUD/USD trend into late March.
The Canadian dollar is still in a bullish phase for late March against the US dollar, as USD/CAD continues to surrender intermediate term support levels. USD/CAD should look to extend the bear trend through late Q1 into early April.
AUDUSD
A new recovery high on Friday, to push above .7657, but to store ahead of.7700 resistance and dip, but to hold above modest support at .7587, to maintain an upside bias into Monday.
For Monday/Tuesday:
- We see an upside bias for .7650/55 and .7680/7700; break here aims for .7738.
- But below .7587 opens risk down to .7530, maybe .7480 which we would look to try to hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks: The break above .7243 set a bull theme.
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7738.
- Above here targets.7849 and .8000.
What Changes This? Below .7106 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6971.
Daily AUD/USD Chart
USD/CAD
Another new bear trend low Friday and despite a minimal rebound, the previous midweek failure back from 1.3402, to plunge lower through the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday, through a key 1.3038 level and psychological/ option target at 1.3000, leaves risk again lower Monday.
For Monday/Tuesday:
- We see a downside bias through the new low at 1.2920 and 1.2900; break here aims for 1.2828.
- But above 1.3046 opens risk up towards 1.3133.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the short/ intermediate-term outlook below 1.3360.
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2828.
- Below here targets 1.2656 and 1.2304.
What Changes This? Above 1.4017 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.4236.
Daily USD/CAD Chart
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