👀 Ones to watch: The MOST undervalued stocks to buy right nowSee Undervalued Stocks

Currency Peg Watch: Saudi Riyal, HK Dollar Under Stress

Published 2015-08-24, 11:56 p/m
USD/HKD
-
USD/SAR
-
US500
-
HK50
-
USD/CNY
-
USD/KZT
-
CL
-
SSEC
-

There are two currency pegs that serve as bedrocks. They were not tackled in the series of emerging market crisis that began in the mid-1990s. They did not succumb during the Great Financial crisis. Yet the market is betting that they fall.

The two pegs are the Honk Kong dollar and Saudi Arabia's riyal. You can't see the pressure looking at the spot market. They are pegged, after all. Rather you can see wagers in the forward market.
SAR Daily 2008-2015

Here are the Great Graphics, from Bloomberg, charting the 12-month forward points for the Saudi riyal and the Hong Kong dollar. The charts begin in early 2008 so one can appreciate the significance of what is happening now. Some are positioning to benefit if Saudi Arabia weakens its currency in the face of new declines in oil prices and a draw down in reserves.

The pressure in the Saudi 12-month forward encountered mild upside pressure in July, but it has intensified over the last couple of weeks. Recall that as Asia's largest oil exporter, Kazakhstan had tried to maintain a pegged currency regime until deciding to let its tenge float last week. It warned that other oil producers face the same choice.
HKD Daily 2008-2015
The pressure on the Hong Kong dollar forwards is new. The forward points held fairly steady as Chinese stocks sold off hard in July. They turned more volatile since China devalued the yuan, but soared yesterday after the Hang Seng fell 5.2% and the Shanghai Composite fell 8.5%. The 12-month forward points for the Hong Kong dollar are the highest since Lehman failed.

We suspect that monetary authorities in Riyadh, Hong Kong, and Beijing are loath to be pushed into a policy change by market participants. In 1997, Hong Kong launched a strong and successful defense of its peg. Saudi Arabia has frustrated leveraged players who from time-to-time have thought the riyal was vulnerable. The key judgment call is whether there is the political will to do it again. We think so.

For market participants, however, the forward points may be used as a non-equity market gauge of the fear factor. It is telling us the same thing that the S&P 500 is when it is four standard deviations from its 20-day moving average. The market move is excessive, but technical indicators have not signaled that the excess is over.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.