On a day where many markets around the world are closed, those that are open have posted moderate gains in light trading. US index futures are up 0.2% with the Dow still below 21,000 while the Nikkei gained and Australian stock rose by 0.2%.
Over the weekend, US legislators reached a deal to keep the government funded through to the end of the current fiscal year in September. The deal looks like a big win for Democrats and a loss for President Trump. The President didn't get any money for a border wall, and only half of the $30B he had wanted for the military.
Meanwhile his proposed changes to environmental and other regulations were blocked, while democrat priorities like Planned Parenthood remain funded. Separately, there was chatter health care reform could take to the end of the year, potentially delaying other initiatives.
This deal raises serious questions about how much longer the Trump trade can keep going when the assumptions that ignited it (major pro-business reforms enacted and implemented smoothly and quickly) continue to crumble. Clearly Congress isn't rubber-stamping his policies and this budget deal sets the stage for either a major budget battle and government shutdown in the fall, or another major defeat for the President. One has to ask how long traders with notoriously short attention spans are going to be patient with the President.
This Democrat win may also have other implications. First, it means that September is pretty much out for a Fed rate hike putting more pressure to hike rates in June despite weak GDP. Second, it means that the President is likely to take a tougher stance in trade negotiations looking for wins in foreign policy to offset his defeats in Congress. CAD remains at a lower level after getting hammered down last week.
In other news, The EU took a hard line on Brexit as generally expected. It demanded to be well on the way to settling. the divorce bill of €40-60 B before starting trade talks. EUR is steady while cable is down slight but still holding $1.2900, its recent breakout point.
Manufacturing PMI reports for April have started to come out. Chinese results fell and we're below expectations which adds to questions about the health of the world economy following Friday's weak US Q1 GDP report. Australia came in strong which boosted AUD/USD back up above $0.7500. Rising inflation in Australia, however, adds to the question about global stagflation which we may see play out further in today’s US personal spending and Core PCE inflation.
Today also brings manufacturing PMI reports for the US and Canada, followed by an RBA meeting in Australia tonight.