ING Economic and Financial Analysis

We are revising our EUR/USD forecast lower following the Republican clean sweep. We assume that Trump will go ahead with both tax cuts and protectionism, with the latter triggering a dovish ECB...

After a day dominated by the resounding success of the Republican party, FX markets today return to the more familiar territory of central bank policy meetings. These take place in the US, UK,...

Oil prices have held relatively steady as the market awaits the outcome of the US election. Energy – Middle Distillate Cracks Continue to Firm Oil prices have held relatively steady as markets await...

Within 24 hours we may or may not know the identity of the 47th president of the United States, but FX options markets have priced in a respectful level of exceptionally high volatility over the...

Markets are seemingly scaling back from a few Trump trades, and we suspect the next two days can see some abnormal swings in US Dollar crosses due to tighter volatility conditions ahead of a closely...

Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ members delayed a supply increase by another month Energy - OPEC Supply Increase Delayed Oil prices are trading stronger this morning with ICE...

It’s been busy in FX markets with surprisingly strong 3Q growth in Europe and an aggressive tax-and-spend budget from the UK Labour government. Eurozone rates and the EUR/USD could stay more...

Economic growth accelerated in the eurozone from 0.2% to 0.4%, in part driven by one-offs. Underlying growth remains sluggish, but there are no signs of the deterioration that the European Central...

Gold climbed to another record high this morning, following an all-time peak just yesterday. Markets are very much focused on next week’s US election Metals – Gold Hits Another Record High Gold...

Growth figures for 3Q are published in the US and eurozone today. German CPI is also expected to have re-accelerated, but the impact on the euro may be limited. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves announces...

The proximity to the US election can favour more deleveraging in FX, raising risks that less liquid currencies will face the pressure reserved for Trump-risk proxies. The US macro calendar picks up...

The oil market sold off aggressively yesterday after Israel’s measured response over the weekend. While it is still not clear if and how Iran will retaliate, the market is clearly of the view that...

Everyone expects more Fed rate cuts in the coming months, but the outcome of the US presidential election could influence their speed and depth. Of course, this is not the only conundrum policymakers...

It looks like Donald Trump is edging ahead in opinion polls – although the outcome of next week’s election remains a toss-up given the polling margin of error. Financial markets, however, seem to be...

THINK Ahead in Developed Markets United States Given the backdrop of 3% growth, low unemployment, equity markets at all-time highs, and inflation still above 2%, you could be forgiven for...

The US dollar lost some ground yesterday on a correction lower in Treasury yields, but upside risks from the US election persist. Donald Trump’s seemingly stronger momentum should translate to higher...