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Monex Monex

Monex's Comment & Analysis.
Access a complete archive of all posts and research produced by Monex, including current material.
Payrolls front and centre for the dollar By Monex - Oct 04, 2024

CAD USDCAD drifted higher on Thursday, belying the light North American data calendar. In part, this was a function of broader strengthening for the greenback. But, it was nevertheless interesting to...

The dollar climb continues By Monex - Oct 03, 2024

CAD Despite continued conflict in the Middle East, the loonie gave back some oil-fueled gains through Wednesday trading. This move higher for USDCAD is likely to extend today too, with PMI readings...

Middle East tensions boost the dollar By Monex - Oct 02, 2024

CAD The loonie was arguably the standout performer on Tuesday, climbing against the dollar, even as much of the G10 FX was in retreat on the escalating conflict in the Middle East. That said, this...

A hawkish Powell propels the dollar higher By Monex - Oct 01, 2024

CAD Similar to the pound, it should be a quiet day coming up for the loonie as well. Only September’s manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release, and this is unlikely to disrupt a narrative that the...

Jobs data key for the Fed and the dollar By Monex - Sep 30, 2024

CAD Despite a solid set of Canadian growth readings, USDCAD rallied on Friday, somewhat surprisingly. Even so, we continue to think the direction of travel for the pair is higher, assuming our...

US recession risks continue to look overstated By Monex - Sep 27, 2024

CAD Neither SEPH employment data nor the CFIB business survey proved market moving for USDCAD on Thursday. Today, however, July GDP figures are likely to be somewhat more impactful. Traders are...

Weaker USD By Monex - Sep 25, 2024

CAD CAD gained ground on Tuesday, testing multi-month highs against the softening USD. Markets are pivoting into a USD-short stance on rising expectations of future Fed rate cuts, helping to give the...

Calm after the Fed’s storm By Monex - Sep 24, 2024

USD With the market still digesting the Fed’s cut last week, USD is lower across the board. The US Dollar index which measures the strength of the currency against its major peers is close to its...

Global PMI data in focus By Monex - Sep 23, 2024

CAD An appearance from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem fizzled out on Friday, failing to jumpstart CAD flows as the BoC Governor focused on non-monetary policy musings. Looking ahead to...

Central Banks aplenty By Monex - Sep 20, 2024

CAD USDCAD was fairly flat during yesterday’s trading session as the markets digested the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday evening. Although USD remains under some selling pressure for the second straight...

The Fed fixes its July mistake By Monex - Sep 19, 2024

CAD The loonie is trading modestly stronger this morning after last night’s Fed meeting. That said, we still think USDCAD looks cheap when considering the divergent fundamentals of the US and Canada....

Retail sales the final data point ahead of the Fed By Monex - Sep 17, 2024

CAD As with other G10 currencies, US retail sales are likely to be closely studied by loonie traders. Indeed, we suspect it could be more significant for CAD than this afternoon’s CPI report. Unlike...

A 50bp Fed cut hangs in the balance By Monex - Sep 16, 2024

CAD CPI and retail sales should offer plenty of entertainment for loonie traders this week. The first of these is likely to show further disinflation progress, the second, a modest but still...

The ECB cuts, but the euro still scans as rich By Monex - Sep 13, 2024

CAD The loonie once again struggled to match price action across other G10 currencies on Thursday. USDCAD traded sideways, perhaps surprisingly given the rally for both oil and equities. That said,...

US core CPI comes in hot, supporting the dollar By Monex - Sep 12, 2024

CAD Despite the upside surprise to US core CPI, the loonie made headway through yesterday’s session. USDCAD finished Tuesday’s trading down 0.25%, almost entirely reversing Monday’s price action....

A Harris victory sees the dollar slip By Monex - Sep 11, 2024 1

CAD Yesterday saw USDACD rising through 1.36, with the loonie hitting a three-week low against the dollar. This slide came as falls for both oil and equities conspired to weigh on CAD given the...

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