UPDATE 1-Canada oil output to jump 28 pct by 2030, transport an issue - industry

(Adds interview with association head)
By Catherine Ngai
CALGARY, June 23 (Reuters) - Oil output from Canada's vast
reserves is set to outpace infrastructure to bring that crude to
market in coming years, the Canadian Association of Petroleum
Producers (CAPP) said on Thursday, even as it scaled back its
long-term growth forecast.
The industry group representing Canada's oil and natural gas
producers predicted in its annual growth forecast that output
will grow by 28 percent to 4.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by
2030.
This was lower than their previous forecast of 5.3 million
bpd by 2030 made a year ago. The lowered expectation comes amid
a two-year rout in global oil prices that has hammered Canadian
oil companies which have slashed billions in capital spending.
CAPP noted that Canada's pipeline network has capacity to
move some 4 million bpd, fairly close to the 2015 average supply
of 3.98 million bpd.
While the majority of that oil moves south into the U.S.
market, feeding refineries across the Midwest and U.S. Gulf
Coast, the need for new infrastructure comes at a time when
Asian demand is also rising, according to Tim McMillan,
president and chief executive of CAPP.
"If you look at the global picture, forecasts are showing
that growth in the world isn't necessarily coming from our
traditional customer in the U.S. It's going to be India and
China," he said in an interview.
"Canada has great trading relationships with different
countries already and energy is a big export. This is a
priority," he said.
Canada's energy industry has long advocated for pipelines
that would bring land-locked oil sands crude to its coast,
allowing them to be shipped on to Asian markets.
But projects proposed by TransCanada Corp TRP.TO , Enbridge
Inc ENB.TO and Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE:KMI) KMI.N have all faced
opposition from environmentalists concerned about the likelihood
these pipelines would spur development of Alberta's
carbon-intensive oil sands.
U.S. President Barack Obama rejected TransCanada's Keystone
XL pipeline from Canada last year, citing the impact it could
have on climate change.
Production from Alberta's oil sands, the world's
third-largest crude reserves and No. 1 source of U.S. oil
imports, will hit 3.7 million bpd by 2030, CAPP said.
The industry group expects conventional oil production in
Western Canada, including condensates, to fall to 1.1 million
bpd by 2018 from 1.3 million bpd in 2015. Production is expected
to remain relatively stable to 2030.