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GLOBAL ECONOMY-Europe manufacturing improves, Americas and Asia slow

Published 2015-12-01, 12:02 p/m
© Reuters.  GLOBAL ECONOMY-Europe manufacturing improves, Americas and Asia slow
JPM
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(Adds data from U.S., Canada and Brazil)
* European factory growth at 19-month high, but still weak
* U.S. slows, Canada and Brazil contract
* China factory activity at 3-year low - official survey
* Graphic on European PMI momentum: http://link.reuters.com/har72w
* For a comparison: http://link.reuters.com/xup22v

By Jonathan Cable and Nicholas Owen
LONDON/JAKARTA, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Global manufacturing
growth remained tepid in November as new orders came in at a
slower pace, surveys showed on Tuesday.
Europe saw steady growth in factory activity but reports
from the Americas and Asia cast doubt on the strength of global
economic growth.
JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
(PMI), produced with Markit, slipped to 51.2 in November, just
below October's five-month high of 51.3.
"The rate of expansion signalled by the headline PMI
remained relatively lacklustre nonetheless, meaning that
November continued the subdued run of data for the global
manufacturing sector through 2015 so far," JPMorgan (N:JPM) said.
The global index has now been above the 50 mark that
separates growth from contraction for three years.
The global PMI combines survey data from countries including
the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, China and
Russia.

EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING STRENGTHENS
Euro zone manufacturing growth picked up to a 19-month high
in November, but the pace was still relatively modest.
Markit's manufacturing PMI for the euro zone rose to 52.8 in
November from 52.3 in the prior month.
With firms cutting prices for a third month, there was
little to conflict with the findings in a Reuters poll last week
that suggested the ECB would expand and extend its quantitative
easing programme when policymakers meet on Thursday. ECB/INT
"The deal has been sealed for the ECB, markets have moved
after the very strong hints and one data point wouldn't change
its mind at this stage," said Jennifer McKeown at Capital
Economics. "These particular data anyway aren't all that
encouraging. There is just no real inflationary pressure."
But British manufacturing growth slowed last month with the
Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI at 52.7 from a revised 55.2 in
October. Britain had the fastest-growing major economy last
year, but it relies heavily on domestic demand.

US SLOWS, CANADA AND BRAZIL CONTRACT
The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.8 in
November from 54.1 the previous month, with the new orders index
falling to falling to the lowest since October 2013.

An alternative report from the U.S. Institute of Supply
Management (ISM) showed manufacturing activity contracting in
November, with the index falling to its worst level since June
2009.
ISM said its index of U.S. factory activity fell to 48.6,
the first time the index has been below 50 since November 2012,
after reading 50.1 in October. The new orders gauge fell to
48.9, the lowest since August 2012.
Canada's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth
month in a row in November, but at a slower pace, as the
industry continued to be hurt by weak commodity prices. The
RBC/Markit PMI edged up 48.6 last month from 48.0 in October.

Despite the headwind from the drop in commodity prices,
U.S. economic growth should benefit Canadian exports and help
improve business conditions in the manufacturing sector in the
coming months, said Craig Wright, chief economist at RBC.
Canada was in a modest recession in the first half of the year
as the drop in oil prices weighed on business investment.
The contraction of Brazil's manufacturing activity
accelerated in November as factories cut jobs at the quickest
pace in more than six years.
The Brazil HSBC/Markit PMI index which fell to 43.8 in
November from 44.1 in October. The Brazil employment index
dropped to 42.2 in November from 45.3.
Brazil's economy is struggling through its worst recession
in 25 years, leaving the nation's crippled manufacturing sector
reeling. More than one million people lost their jobs over the
past year, and economists see no prospects of recovery until at
least late 2016.
"There is still no light at the end of the tunnel," said
Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at Banco Mizuho in Sao Paulo.
"In the best case scenario, there will be some turnaround in the
second quarter of 2016, if fiscal issues are addressed. But the
risk is that we'll keep this recessionary outlook for longer."
Mexico's manufacturing sector continues to expand though
with the HSBC/Markit PMI 53.0, unchanged from
October. N9N122025

DESPONDENT ASIA
The manufacturing surveys showed few signs of vigour across
Asia, apart from Japan, with sluggish demand at home and abroad
forcing manufacturers from China to Indonesia to throttle back
production, cut selling prices and shed more jobs.
"Asia's economy looks decidedly wobbly going into year-end.
Exports continue to struggle amid sluggish demand in the West
and other emerging markets," said HSBC economist Frederic
Neumann.
China's official PMI fell for a fourth month in a row in
November, hitting its lowest since August 2012, as new export
orders dropped for the 14th month.
A private survey, the Caixin/Markit China PMI, which focuses
on small and mid-sized companies, edged up to its highest
reading since June, but still pointed to a ninth month of
contraction.
Facing what could be its slowest pace of economic expansion
in a quarter-century, China has cut interest rates six times in
the past year as part of sweeping stimulus efforts, and more
easing is expected next year.
There was much better news out of Japan, where manufacturing
firms, possibly aided by a weak yen, may be producing enough to
lift the world's third-largest economy out of recession.
Manufacturing production expanded by its fastest pace in 20
months in November as new orders picked up, according to the
Markit/Nikkei Japan manufacturing PMI.


<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
GRAPHIC: European PMI comparison http://link.reuters.com/xup22v
GRAPHIC: European PMI momentum http://link.reuters.com/har72w

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(Editing by Jeremy Gaunt and Clive McKeef.)

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