The latest batch of gross domestic product (GDP) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data came in a bit stronger than expected, yet “not enough to seriously challenge” expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI strategists said.
The US GDP release for Q2 indicates stronger-than-expected 2.8% annualized growth, with real final sales to domestic purchasers increasing by 2.7%. The robust figures align closely with the near-term potential output growth, driven by a surge of immigrant workers, strong domestic labor force participation, and healthy productivity levels.
Meanwhile, consumption growth at 2.3% annualized, coupled with strong investment in equipment “should moderate concerns that the US economy is slowing too fast rather than settling into a soft landing," strategists noted.
Solid personal income growth continues to support consumption, although a two-speed economy may be emerging, with lower-end consumers feeling more financial pressure.
Strategists also highlighted that per capita income and consumption are growing more slowly than aggregate data suggests, due to the influence of immigrant workers earning and spending money.
Moreover, Q2 core PCE inflation came in slightly higher than expected at 2.9% annualized, implying modest upward revisions to the past three months of inflation data.
"These revisions will not be helpful for the Fed,” strategists commented. “But we do not think they are of a magnitude that makes a meaningful difference to the very high probability of a September rate cut.”
While the GDP data reduces concerns about a rapid shift in the balance of risks, it slightly lowers the likelihood of a third cut in November, in addition to the expected cuts in September and December.
"We continue to expect that the Fed will use the July meeting to clearly tee up a September move, though policymakers will continue to insist that it is not a done deal and policy remains data-dependent," Evercore’s team added.
The strategists maintain a view of less than 50% probability for a November cut, though they still consider it much more likely than only one cut or none at all.