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Dow futures edge higher ahead of key inflation release

Published 2023-06-30, 07:10 a/m
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Investing.com -- U.S. stock futures traded higher Friday, on course to register a positive quarter ahead of the release of key inflation data which could guide future Federal Reserve action.

By 06:50 ET (10:50 GMT), the Dow futures contract was up 115 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures traded 20 points, or 0.4% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 85 points, or 0.6%.

Core PCE index due

The hawkish nature of the recent comments by U.S. Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell has led investors to largely factor in another interest rate hike in the near future, probably in July.

With this in mind, investors are keeping a close eye on the core personal consumption expenditures index, due later in the session, as this is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

PCE prices are expected to rise 4.6% for the year and 0.5% for May, and could help decide the next step on interest rates, with the Fed’s last meeting indicating that they still see potentially two more hikes of 25 basis points this year.

Positive month, quarter coming to a close

This is the last trading day of the week, the month, and the quarter, and the period has largely been a positive one for investors, helped by increasing confidence of a soft-landing scenario after the release of generally strong economic data.

The broad-based S&P 500 is on course for monthly gains of over 5%, its best monthly performance since January, and a quarterly improvement of almost 7%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is even more impressive, with a monthly gain of around 5%, and a quarterly return of over 11%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed just under 4% in June, on track for its best month since November, up around 2.5% on the quarter.

Nike disappoints with revenue forecast

In corporate news, earnings are due from spirits and brewing giant Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), but the focus will be on Nike (NYSE:NKE) after the sportswear giant offered up a gloomy forecast for first-quarter revenue, predicting that still-high inflation will lead consumers to cut back discretionary spending in North America, the company's biggest market.

Oil edges higher; monthly gains likely

Crude prices edged higher Friday, on course to record healthy gains this month helped by signs of resilience by the U.S. economy, the largest consumer of crude in the world.

By 06:50 ET, U.S. crude futures were 0.1% higher at $69.88 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 0.1% to $74.59 per barrel. Both contracts were set to add between 2% and 3% for June, with Brent marking its first positive month this year after WTI recorded a gain in April.

The tone this week has been helped by U.S. crude inventories dropping far more than expected last week, while both Thursday’s quarterly growth data and jobless claims numbers pointed to a U.S. economy that looked set to avoid recession even with the Federal Reserve set to tighten monetary policy further.

On a quarterly basis, however, Brent looks set for a loss of about 6% while WTI appears headed for a decline of about 7%, the first back-to-back quarterly losses since 2019.

Additionally, gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,931.50/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.2% lower at 1.0848.

(Oliver Gray contributed to this item.)

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