Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst Mark Delaney has reflected on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) ahead of the companys Q1 deliveries report that is likely due this weekend.
The analyst believes Tesla is experiencing very strong demand for its products with indicators showing shipments had been tracking up modestly qoq and ahead of the Street.
However, the shutdown of the Shanghai plant for several days presents an incremental downside risk to Delaneys 315k delivery estimate. While the Street consensus is 309k, Delaney says Tesla could report numbers that end up being in line to modestly above the Street.
We estimate based on CPCA data that daily production from the Shanghai Gigafactory has recently been ~2K vehicles per day, although part of the production in the last week of the quarter would likely be for deliveries in 2Q. In addition, disruptions to Tesla's supply chain in China from lockdowns could also weigh on production. For example, Tesla supplier Aptiv (NYSE:APTV) has also halted some production in Shanghai, Delaney said in a client note.
A team of analysts at Goldman Sachs, led by Delaney, also analyzed Tesla app downloads, which were up low single digits qoq and up significantly yoy, albeit with some geographic dispersion.
Delaney also previewed Teslas Q1 earnings report with his full-year projection for 2022 sitting at 1.51 million deliveries - above the Street at 1.455 million - and the full-year EPS estimate of $11.20, again higher than the FactSet consensus at $10.86.
The analyst expects a more muted Q1 for EPS given rising input prices and factory start-up costs. Delaney also expects margins to go further up as a result of the raised prices and new factories.
We believe Tesla's ability to pass on higher pricing and navigate the supply chain will position it well this year, the analyst concluded.
By Senad Karaahmetovic