Evercore ISI analysts on Monday cut their price target on shares of Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), an operator of a chain of cosmetic stores in which legendary investor Warren Buffett holds a stake.
The investment bank has lowered its price target on ULTA stock from $500 to $430, citing concerns over near-term pressures on the retailer, including slowing category growth, increasing competition, and lackluster product innovation.
Despite maintaining an "Outperform" rating on the stock, Evercore's analysts noted that Ulta has been removed from their Top 5 Outperformers list as they anticipate continued challenges in the coming quarters.
Key factors driving the price target reduction include a slowdown in same-store sales (SSS) growth and declining market share in critical beauty categories. Evercore has revised down its 2Q24 SSS estimates from +1.5% to +0.5%, with further reductions expected in the second half of the year.
“While we see long-term value in ULTA’s stock as a solid operator and category leader in the attractive US beauty industry, we see multi-faceted reasons to believe ULTA will have to lower its SSS expectations for 2H24 as it continues to navigate slowing industry trends, new competition and lackluster product newness,” analysts said.
Ulta's market share has notably declined, particularly against competitors like Sephora and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which have expanded their reach in the beauty sector. The report highlighted that Sephora has gained significant ground in the makeup and fragrance categories, while Amazon has made strides in skincare and haircare.
The analysts also foresee a margin cut for Ulta, lowering their FY24 EBIT margin forecast to 13.3% from 13.8% and FY25 to 13.0% from 13.9%.
They predict Ulta may need to revise its long-term EBIT margin target to the lower end of its current 13-14% range, driven by the need to offer more favorable terms to beauty brands and boost its promotional budget to stay competitive.
On a tactical level, analysts believe it would be prudent for Ulta to lower its fiscal 2024 margin outlook during the 2Q call to mitigate the risk of having to reduce the baseline year for the three-year targets that will be updated at the October Analyst Day.