Dollar Doldrums

Published 2025-06-12, 07:03 a/m

USD

Markets focused yesterday on the latest U.S. inflation measure—CPI. With some expecting tariff measures to result in a spike in inflation, the slightly weaker-than-forecast result (2.8% actual vs. 2.9% estimate) raises further questions ahead of the next Federal Reserve decision next Wednesday. Adding to the downward pressure was news that Donald Trump plans to implement additional unilateral tariffs in the next fortnight. Markets are struggling to assess the viability and impact of policy decisions, given the erratic nature of decision-making from the White House. An update on the employment market will come this afternoon with the release of Initial Jobless Claims.

GBP

Rachel Reeves’ Spending Review statements yesterday provided little clarity on how fiscal constraints will be navigated. Since most of the content had already been released in the days leading up to the event, markets were left to focus on the lack of detail supporting a growth narrative. In our view, this is likely to act as a headwind for GBP pricing in the coming weeks, though it does not present an acute risk. Negative sentiment was compounded by this morning’s GDP release, the weakest print since April 2023. The economy contracted by 0.3%, a sharper decline than the -0.1% expected. There are no further data releases scheduled for today.

EUR

The Euro’s rally against the USD has continued at pace, now reaching levels not seen since September 2021. Following the ECB’s rate cut and forward guidance last week, markets appear comfortable placing faith in the Eurozone’s outlook. However, this move has been largely fueled by USD weakness. Should the threat of tariffs against the EU materialise, this rally could reverse. Several ECB speakers are on the calendar today and may provide further insight.

CAD

As has been the case over the past few trading sessions, with little domestic data, USDCAD movement remains primarily driven by USD dynamics. The 2.5% decline in USDCAD over the past month closely mirrors the 2.86% drop in the DXY (a measure of USD strength against a basket of currencies). There are no Canadian data releases scheduled for today.

This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2026 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.