Currencies and Forex Analysis & Opinion

Equity market futures are tentatively testing stability this morning, but DeepSeek’s knock-on effect on US tech valuations may be longer-lasting. The US dollar proved inefficient as a haven in the...

CAD Two factors should be top of mind for loonie traders this week – tariff risks and monetary policy. Regarding the former, events over the weekend should serve as a warning shot. We see only...

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The US dollar's fate hinges on key central bank decisions and Trump’s trade rhetoric this week. Fed and ECB moves, combined with trade tensions, will likely determine the dollar's next...

The US dollar has so far retraced about a quarter of its 10% run-up from late September. That has largely been a function of investors reducing the tariff risk premium embedded into the currencies of...

Our recent article, Why Are Bond Yields Rising, explains that the recent 1% increase in yields, as shown below, is almost entirely due to negative sentiment. As we wrote, the bond market calls...

The Bank of Japan delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp hike, but surprised markets on the hawkish side by materially raising its inflation forecasts. We expect two more hikes this year which can pave...

CAD USDCAD drifted fractionally higher on Wednesday, in line with broader dollar moves. We see little reason for this dynamic to change today either. Of note domestically, retail sales data for...

CAD After trading north of 1.44 for much of the morning, USDCAD slipped back after lunch, helped by CPI readings that were somewhat hotter than they initially appeared. Markets had expected aggregate...

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...

The narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world have been a key theme in the improving Japanese yen forecast in the last couple of weeks. The main USD/JPY pair...

CAD Perhaps unsurprisingly given the risk that tariffs pose to the Canadian economy, USDCAD saw a sharp reaction to tariff headlines on Monday, dropping from above 1.445 to almost 1.425. That slide...

USD/JPY could face volatility as Trump’s policy moves and the BOJ meeting loom large. Speculation grows over a potential rate hike by the BOJ, with inflation and Treasury yields hitting decade...

The US dollar suffered a positioning squeeze yesterday as Trump fell short of announcing universal tariffs on day one. However, USD/CAD and USD/MXN are facing more downside risks as the new president...