Currencies and Forex Analysis & Opinion

The US dollar has found a little support overnight after the House passed a budget blueprint bill laying the groundwork for President Trump's tax-cutting agenda. The focus on fiscal might buy a...

The German election results initially boosted optimism, but uncertainty over coalition talks is keeping pressure on EUR/USD. Trump's confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada increased safe-haven...

CAD While Q4 GDP to end the week remains the main data release of note in Canada, Trump’s comments overnight shift the focus for loonie traders squarely onto trade risks. This has already propelled...

Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...

USD/CAD Key Points Trump’s tariff reprieve on Canada is set to expire next week on March 4, leaving USD/CAD traders uneasy. The Canadian election is shaping up to be a potential coinflip between...

CAD While elections are in focus in Europe, in Canada it is GDP data that should be front of mind this week. Set to be released on Friday, we expect to see growth rebound sharply in Q4. Our base case...

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro (EUR/USD) got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without...

CAD In Canada, it should be retail sales that are the major focus ahead of the weekend. Markets look for a sharp rise in consumer spending, with a 1.6% MoM jump in sales forecast. Even so, we would...

CAD In keeping with the greenback’s broad-based climb on Wednesday, USDCAD rose through the 1.42 level, adding 0.3pp over the course of the session. Industrial prices are the only domestic event of...

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The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before...

Optimism over Ukraine peace talks is offsetting the impact of Trump’s tariff threats, keeping the euro’s downside limited for now. The 1.0400-1.0430 range is acting as support, while 1.0480-1.0500...

CAD At first glance, yesterday’s inflation data release looked hot. While headline price growth matched expectations at 1.9% YoY, core median and core trim both rose to 2.7%, above consensus...

Markets continue to carefully assess the implications of Russia-US talks, but we are observing an emerging trend of euro underperformance linked to Trump’s growing isolationism against EU allies....