ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Markets are consolidating after a period of heightened volatility. In focus currently is President-elect Trump’s pick for the influential post of US Treasury Secretary. Given the large US budget...

Oil prices increased yesterday due to supply outages and a weaker US Dollar. Meanwhile, despite Gazprom halting supply to OMV, Russian pipeline gas continues to flow into Europe as usual Energy –...

We are entering a period of calm in US macro news. This means that it’s mostly up to any positioning readjustment to keep the US dollar from rallying further. Growing focus will be on the eurozone...

China’s finance ministry announced last week that it would end its export tax rebate policy for Aluminium, starting 1 December. LME aluminium prices surged as much as 8.5% on Friday following the...

The US dollar remains at risk of positioning-led corrections, but so far macro data and Fed communication have not offered any USD-negative catalyst. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell emphasised the...

European gas prices are trading at their highest levels since November last year on concerns that some Russian pipeline flows could be disrupted soon. Energy - European Gas Surges, US Gas Falls Most...

Markets were quick to buy US Dollar after a minor correction as US CPI was released yesterday. This move might reflect expectations for the coming year, as a USD-positive policy mix under Trump is...

The main event in sterling (GBP/USD) markets today is a speech by Bank of England’s Catherine Mann, the most hawkish member of the MPC. Markets will be attentive to any comments about the...

As the dust settles after last week’s US election results, global markets are settling into core trades of a firmer US dollar, higher US equities and higher terminal rate from the Fed. Importantly in...

Natural gas prices in the US and Europe surged higher yesterday. Short covering in Henry Hub provided more momentum to the rally Energy - Natural Gas Strength, Oil Weakness Oil prices came under...

Rest of World currencies took a leg lower on Friday after reports suggested that Robert Lighthizer will likely head the next Trump administration’s trade policy. His name shouldn’t have come as a...

The complex came under pressure on Friday after the market was left disappointed with the Chinese government’s debt package Energy – European Natural Gas Rallies Oil prices came under pressure on...

Energy markets are trying to digest what a Trump presidency means for oil and gas prices. While the bulk of Trump’s policies are expected to be bearish for prices, the key upside risk is how the...

If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX,...

The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...

We expect oil and European gas prices to fall throughout 2025, with both balances looking more comfortable. The macro and geopolitical backdrop suggests there is more upside for gold OPEC+ Delayed...