ING Economic and Financial Analysis

US inflation surprisingly undershot pretty much everyone's expectations in March, but higher prices from tariffs and supply chain disruptions are on their way. After all the volatility and...

President Trump's surprise pause on some of the highest tariff measures once again upends any pretence that we understand his strategy. Pressed by an 8-week 20% correction in US equities, it now...

President Trump surprised markets with a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners. This provided a boost to risk assets, including commodities. However, there’s still plenty of...

The 'sell America' scenario is becoming tangible again, as Treasuries and US equities are under pressure. That can be a very toxic combination for the US dollar. Markets are clearly punishing US...

Sentiment is rebounding, perhaps on the view that Trump may focus protectionism on China and speed up trade deals elsewhere. Markets may be erring on the optimistic side though, and we’d be cautious...

Risk of further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China poses increased downside risks to the commodities complex. Oil prices witnessed something of a relief rally this morning. Yet...

With no sign yet of a U-turn from Trump on tariffs, equity markets remain under heavy pressure. For FX, the flight to safety seeks those liquid currencies with large current account surpluses,...

The complex has sold off heavily following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration. Oil, metals and ags have all sold off. Even gold, usually seen as a safe haven, has come...

Oil prices have sold off heavily as the market deals with a potential demand hit from tariffs and a surprise supply increase from OPEC+. Stronger supply and demand uncertainty has led us to lower our...

Global equity markets - especially US equity markets - have been hit hard by President Trump's aggressive 'reciprocal' tariffs. Corporate America is suffering as Trump starts to rewire the global...

Oil prices had their worst day since 2022 thanks to new tariffs and a surprise OPEC+ supply increase hitting the market. Oil prices took a big hit yesterday as a barrage of new tariffs raised...

The 2.5% drop in CNH/JPY overnight probably best encapsulates the fallout from Liberation Day. True to his promise, Donald Trump heavily tariffed those countries he felt responsible for the US goods...

A US 20% reciprocal tariff on the European Union will hurt. It's worsened the eurozone's short-term outlook. Now, so much depends on European governments to push through with their planned fiscal...

Oil prices slumped this morning after the Trump administration unveiled its latest reciprocal tariffs. Unsurprisingly, the move pushed gold prices to fresh record highs Energy - Tariffs Weigh on...

High-beta currencies have rallied overnight, perhaps indicating that the US will opt for a flat rate over country-specific tariffs, which could be seen as slightly more lenient. But it’s also been...

Tariffs are meant to reinvigorate US manufacturing, but there is more concern about what they mean for supply chains and the prospect of foreign retaliation right now, amidst signs of a cooling...