(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump signaled he’s open to talks with North Korea, even as his advisers expressed skepticism that Kim Jong Un is serious about suspending his nuclear weapons program and engaging in real negotiations.
“They seem to be acting positively. I’d like to be optimistic,” Trump told reporters Tuesday, hours after envoys from South Korea said Kim told them he was ready to give up his nuclear weapons if the safety of his regime was guaranteed.
But a top administration official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, said North Korea had earned skepticism in Washington through decades of failed peace deals and that Kim’s regime would need to do more than temporarily halt weapons tests before the U.S. would agree to talks. Many analysts shared those doubts.
“The North Koreans are looking to buy time. They are looking for some relief just as the sanctions are beginning to bite and they are very worried about all the talk of a military strike,” said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who’s a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “I’m highly skeptical that all of a sudden the North Koreans are ready to give up their nuclear weapons and missiles.”
The next step will be some tough questioning of South Korean officials who will travel to Washington later this week to brief the Trump administration on their talks with Kim in Pyongyang, the administration official said.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who agreed to meet Kim for a summit along their shared border late next month, won office pledging to seek conciliation with Kim. He’s maintained optimism about the prospects for a diplomatic solution compared with the U.S.’s less sanguine approach.
“One reason for skepticism is that we are not controlling the process,” said Stephen Noerper, senior director for policy at the Korea Society in New York. “In the past, North Korea looked to the U.S., and this time they are going through South Korea. We have to wait for Moon to deliver the package. How the administration handles this requires tact, flexibility and accommodation.”
In the meantime, Vice President Mike Pence said that the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions against North Korea will continue. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said he was “quite skeptical” of North Korea’s motives. “Maybe this is a breakthrough,” Coats told a Senate committee. “I seriously doubt it.”
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While tensions on the Korean Peninsula have eased recently as North Korea participated in the Winter Olympics, Trump and Kim have exchanged bellicose taunts in past months.
Trump threatened in August to bring down “fire and fury” on North Korea. He declined to rule out a preemptive strike on Pyongyang, saying, “We’ll see what happens.” For his part, Kim said in a New Year’s address that his nation’s nuclear deterrent is “irreversible” and “the nuclear button is always on my desk.”
Over the years, the Kim dynasty raised the prospect of abandoning its nuclear-weapons program if the U.S. gave up its hostile policies. Serious negotiations haven’t taken place since so-called six-party talks -- also including China, Japan and Russia -- broke down in 2009.
“It’s progress -- certainly more than most would have expected -- but it’s still rhetorical,” Robert Kelly, a political science associate professor at South Korea’s Pusan National University, said of the latest developments. While it’s unclear if Trump will agree to return to negotiations, he said, “the pressure will be on to talk.”
Kim’s Declaration
The U.S. and North Korea have been at loggerheads since the Korean War ended without a peace treaty almost 65 years ago, and Kim’s government has repeatedly said nuclear weapons were necessary to deter any U.S.-led military action.
In November, Kim declared the program complete after successfully testing an intercontinental ballistic missile that arms control experts believe could reach any American city, although questions remain about whether North Korea has figured out how to prevent a warhead from burning up on re-entry into the atmosphere.
The launch was part of an escalating series of weapons tests last year -- including a likely hydrogen bomb detonation in September -- that alarmed Kim’s neighbors and prompted the United Nations to severely restrict trade to the country. Trump urged “maximum pressure” to force him to the negotiating table and warned in a speech to the UN General Assembly that the U.S. would “totally destroy” the country in any conflict.
Only last month, Trump imposed the toughest U.S. sanctions yet on North Korea, saying it could be a “very rough thing” if the measures don’t succeed.
In his New Year’s Day address, Kim made an unexpected overture to reopen talks with Moon, who was elected last year after pledging to improve relations with his northern rival, ahead of the Winter Olympics in South Korea. A flurry of talks culminated in an unprecedented visit last month to South Korea by Kim’s sister, who offered a meeting with her elder sibling.
“North Korea has clearly expressed its intention for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, and if there is no military threat, and North Korea’s regime security is promised, they have clarified that there is no reason to hold nuclear weapons,” Moon’s office said Tuesday.
Lacking Diplomats
The U.S. faces the prospect of potential talks with North Korea without a full team of diplomats to lead the way. Joseph Yun, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, announced he was stepping down last month for “personal reasons. ” The State Department also lacks a confirmed secretary for East Asian and Asian Affairs.
Trump will need to fill Yun’s position quickly for the U.S. to take advantage of the potential diplomatic opening, said Patrick Cronin, director of the Center for a New America Security’s Asia-Pacific security program.
“It’s a thankless job even when you have a stable president,” Cronin said. “It’s a doubly thankless job when you’re not sure that the president has your back.”
