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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 24 - 28

Published 2016-10-23, 04:43 a/m
© Reuters.  Dollar hits 8-month highs on Fed rate hike view
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Investing.com - The dollar rallied on Friday, hitting its highest levels since early February amid heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before the end of this year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.34% at 98.62 late Friday. For the week, the index gained 0.7%.

The dollar strengthened after New York Fed President William Dudley said Wednesday the U.S. central bank will likely raise interest rates later this year if the economy remains on its current trajectory.

Growing expectations that Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential election have also added to the view that a December rate hike is likely.

The Fed’s next meeting is in November, but a rate hike ahead of the presidential election is seen as unlikely.

Expectations for higher rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

Investors currently price a 64% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

The dollar was also boosted as the euro weakened in the wake of Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting.

ECB President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank may extend its stimulus program in December.

The euro fell to seven-month lows against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD at 1.0882 in late trade.

USD/JPY dipped 0.15% to 103.77 late Friday, while GBP/USD was down 0.18% at 1.2231.

Next week, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s preliminary reading on U.S. third quarter growth, which is expected to show a significant rebound from the sluggish second quarter.

The U.K. is also set to release its preliminary estimate of third quarter growth, due on Tuesday, the first such look at how the economy is preforming since the June 23 Brexit vote.

Preliminary data on business activity in October for key euro zone members as well as for the wider euro area is due out Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 24

Key euro zone members and the wider euro area are due to release flash PMIs for October.

In the U.S., New York Fed head William Dudley and St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard are to speak.

Tuesday, October 25

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to testify about the economic consequences of the Brexit vote in London.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Berlin.

Wednesday, October 26

Australia is to release data on inflation during the third quarter.

The U.S. is to report on new home sales.

Thursday, October 27

New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance.

The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is to produce report on durable goods, initial jobless claims and pending home sales.

Friday, October 28

Japan is to release data on inflation and household spending.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary inflation figures for October.

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with preliminary figures on third quarter GDP and a revised consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan.

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