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5 Things to Watch This Morning

Published 2015-08-20, 06:44 a/m
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch This Morning: Dovish Fed, U.S. data, China stocks plunge, Oil sinks, Gold rallies
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1. Dovish FOMC minutes

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting published on Wednesday showed that policymakers express broad concerns about lagging inflation and the weak global economy, leading some investors to question the likelihood of a rate hike in September.

According to the minutes, Fed officials were concerned about "recent decreases in oil prices and the possibility of adverse spillovers from slower economic growth in China."

The dovish minutes prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Fed to December, instead of September.

The timing of a Fed rate hike has been a constant source of debate in the markets in recent months.

Some traders believe the Fed could postpone raising interest rates next month as officials are likely to remain concerned over global growth and inflation pressures due to China’s shock currency devaluation move and weak commodity prices.

2. U.S. data in focus

The U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims at 8:30AM ET, followed by a report on existing home sales, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed survey on manufacturing activity, all due out at 10:00AM.

Weekly jobless claims are forecast to fall to 272,000 last week from 274,000 in the preceding week. First-time jobless claims have held below the 300,000-level for 23 consecutive weeks, which is usually associated with a firming labor market.

3. Chinese stock market plunges again

The Shanghai Composite took investors on another volatile ride on Thursday, falling by as much as 2.2% after the open, before paring losses after the midday break, and then plunging again in the last hour of trade to end down 3.4%, amid concern a slowing economy and weaker yuan will spur capital outflows.

Chinese stock markets sold off sharply earlier in the week amid growing concerns over the health of the Asian nation's economy and worries that Beijing may allow the yuan to continue to depreciate, fueling fears over a currency war that could destabilize the global economy.

4. Oil prices sink to new lows

Oil prices sank to levels not seen since the peak of the global financial crisis in 2009, after a surprise buildup in U.S. oil stockpiles underlined concerns about a growing global oil glut.

New York-traded oil futures struggled below $41-a-barrel early Thursday, while London-traded Brent prices dropped below $47 for the first time in more than six years, as worries about slowing demand from China and a glut of supply drove down prices.

5. Gold rallies to 5-week high

Gold rallied to a five-week high on Thursday, after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting fanned hopes that the central bank could delay raising interest rates till the very end of 2015.

Gold fell to a five-and-a-half year low of $1,072.30 on July 24 amid speculation the Fed will raise interest rates in September for the first time since 2006. But prices have since rebounded almost 6% on hopes of a delayed U.S. rate hike.

A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.

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