Following President Biden's poor performance in Thursday's debate, several key factors will determine the fallout, according to Evercore ISI analysts.
The firm said in a note that immediate reactions from the press, pundits, politicians, and polls will be critical in shaping the post-debate landscape.
While pundits have been harsh, prominent Democratic politicians, including Obama, Clinton, Pelosi, Clyburn, and Jeffries, have publicly supported Biden, notes Evercore. They feel that this indicates that, for now, Biden has survived the initial wave of criticism. Conversations about Biden stepping aside are likely happening privately rather than publicly.
However, Evercore ISI notes that the press, which has been critical of Biden's fitness to govern, will continue to scrutinize him, especially if he avoids interviews and press conferences.
Despite the negative debate reviews, Evercore notes that Biden's campaign has mounted a defense, with the President delivering a rally in North Carolina, addressing his debate shortcomings and vowing to fight on.
Politically, the investment firm highlights that no prominent Democrats have publicly broken with Biden, but they believe this could change if vulnerable Senate and House members feel threatened. Evercore states that key figures like Senators Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown, along with loyalists like Senator Chris Coons and Congressman James Clyburn, will be influential if they weigh in.
Furthermore the firm says polls are crucial, with a CBS poll finding that only 27% of voters believe Biden has the cognitive health to serve as President, down from 35%.
Additionally, it is said to have shown that 46% of Democrats think he should not run, up from 36% in February. Evercore believes early snap polls suggest the fallout might be contained, but more data is needed.
Biden's campaign raised over $33 million since the debate, indicating some resilience. Evercore ISI concludes that while Biden's team is likely to press ahead, the race's future depends on upcoming voter sentiment and polling data.