Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak than we were in the...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different? Have the forty-year pre-pandemic economic...

The most recent data release unveiled a moderate 0.2% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the preceding month, following a slight 0.1% upturn observed in May. Furthermore, the...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the relatively...

Treasury yields surged again after fresh data signalled that the U.S. labour market remains piping hot, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve could push interest rates higher and for longer than...

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since early March, once again putting a...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by CapitalSpectator.com for May...

US jobless claims surged to their highest level in 20 months, fueling speculation of an imminent pause by the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy next week, even if surprise rate hikes from...

Despite a rebound on Friday after jobs data topped expectations, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 10 basis points over the week to 3.70%. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year...

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note topped 3.80% (+10 basis points), reaching its highest level since early March. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note surged by 28...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had the biggest...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of proxy ETFs. The...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...