Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederNothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

Government bond yields, which had rapidly retreated last week amid hopes the Fed has finished its rate hike cycle, changed little over this holiday-truncated week. The U.S .10-year Treasury yield...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

The Federal Open Market Committee is “not confident” that it has tightened policy to a “sufficiently restrictive stance” needed to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target,...

US Treasury yields fell again as investors appear more inclined to believe that there will be no further interest rate hikes in the coming months, following the latest policy-setting meeting by the...

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...