Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

The Federal Open Market Committee is “not confident” that it has tightened policy to a “sufficiently restrictive stance” needed to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target,...

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

US Treasury yields retreated in the last week of October, as signs of easing inflation offset strong Q3 economic growth. The core price consumer expenditure index, a measure of inflation closely...

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds shot up to levels not seen since early 2007 – the start of the subprime mortgage crisis - following Jerome Powell’s speech. The latter suggested that...

United States 10-Year yields are closing in on 5%. What's the Big Deal? What does it mean for stocks and gold?

Bonds have been selling off for quite a while now Once considered the safest investment, the sell-off has proven how risky long-duration bonds can be This is a great opportunity for investors to...

Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation. These factors, which we call...