50% Off! Beat the market in 2025 with InvestingProCLAIM SALE

S&P 500 Nears 200 DMA, Nasdaq in Bull Trap, Russell 2000 Faces Key Support Test

Published 2023-10-30, 03:03 a/m
US500
-
US2000
-
IXIC
-
SOX
-

Daily charts show indexes in a bit of a freefall, so the focus shifts to weekly timeframes. The S&P 500 was the last of the lead indexes to break weekly-trend support, lining up the 200-day MA for the next support test.

Volume climbed to register as distribution, rubbing salt into the wound of bulls. The only positive for bulls is that intermediate stochastics [39,1] are above the bullish mid-line, but with other technicals turning negative it's unlikely to stop the rot.SPX-Weekly Chart

The Nasdaq lost weekly support and is testing (ironically) the bullish 'Golden Cross', but this latter bullish signal is looking more of a 'bull trap', and I expect this index to continue lower.

Last week's selling volume didn't quite rank as distribution, but volume was still high. Despite breaking the rising trend it hasn't challenged intermediate stochastic support, and this might be critical in the coming weeks.

COMPQ-Weekly Chart

The index most on the rack is the Russell 2000. It has made its way all the way back to 2022 June lows, lows that I had marked as a major buying opportunity for investors as it occurred near the 200-week MA.

The situation is more damaging now with the 200-week MA long since breached, and technicals net negative in a straight push to this key swing low.

Worse to come appears likely or a weak bounce at best. I should add that investors shouldn't be fearful here; yes, the index can go lower, but if there is a crash it will make its way back and there will be real value in small-cap stocks. IWM-Weekly Chart

As a final chart, I will show the Semiconductor Index. The weekly chart is back at key price support alongside its 50-week MA (effectively, the 200-day MA).

It's still weeks away from a test of its 200-week MA that other indexes have now breached. If this can hold it will offer support for the Nasdaq and potentially spread some goodwill to other indexes.

SOX-Weekly Chart

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.