Market Insights
Although not up as much as their European counterparts today, US indices have been trading higher with traders heading home for Thanksgiving in a buoyant mood. The US Dollar index has been bumping up against 100 while US indices have been posting moderate gains.
There has been a ton of US economic data out today, most of it positive. A much stronger than expected durable goods report led the way and is significant because it represents a turnaround in a part of the US economy that has been struggling for much of this year. Meanwhile, jobless claims, Core PCE inflation and rising house prices all indicates a robust economy. Even the small misses in home sales and consumer sentiment are not big enough or important enough to force the Fed to reconsider raising interest rates this month.
Crude oil has shrugged off the weakness related to the rise in API inventories as DOE inventories rose at a smaller than expected pace, US implied demand increased again and the number of active drilling rigs fell again. It appears that the supply/demand imbalance within the US is sorting itself out, supporting the price, but actions and events offshore could still impact the market.
With the US off on holiday and not providing leadership, trading typically goes quiet. That being said we could see some interest in Australia, New Zealand and Singapore around data announcements. We also could see some positioning in Japanese markets ahead of tomorrow’s announcements.
Chart Signals
Asia Pacific Indices
S&P/ASX All Australian 200 has slumped back under 5,240 from a lower high falling toward 5,190 with next potential support near 5,145 then 5,070. RSI retesting 50 could indicate if momentum is turning seriously downward or not.
Nikkei 225 continues to consolidate recent gains in the 19,890 to 20,000 range which includes a Fibonacci cluster and a big round number. More support possible near 19,735.
Hang Seng is holding steady near 22,500 as it continues to bounce around between 22,000 and 23,000 trying to decide which way to move next.
India 50 has levelled off near 7,800 trading in the 7,780 to 7,820 range. RSI indicates downward pressure easing but downtrend still intact below 7,900.
North American and European Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in an uptrend rallying up off of higher support near 17,780 toward the 17,810 to 17,860 zone with next potential resistance near 17,900 and 17,990.
US Nasdaq 100 continues to struggle with 4,685 resistance but has been attracting support above 4,660 with more possible near 4,625.
US S&P 500 is creeping higher once again with support moving up from 2,080 toward 2,086. Next resistance appears near 2,095 then 2,105 and 2,115.
DAX has rallied back up above 11,000 from 10,920 higher support toward 11,175 before levelling off. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum still increasing. Next potential resistance near 11,215.
FTSE 100 remains stuck in consolidation mode trading sideways around 6,300 in a 6,290 to 6,350 range with initial support moving up toward 6,320.
Commodities
Gold has started to fall again within its $1,065 to $1,086 trading channel dropping from a lower high near $1,080 toward $1,072.
Crude Oil WTI remains in an upswing with support moving up toward $41.40 from $40.90 but it continues to struggle with $42.00 resistance with a breakout attempt unable to hold that key level.
FX
US Dollar Index is bumping up against the 100.00 round number again but a growing negative RSI divergence suggests upward momentum slowing so it may continue to struggle to get through. Next measured resistance possible near 101.50 if successful. Support rises toward 99.40.
EURUSD has resumed its downward course dropping toward $1.0570 after once again failing to break through $1.0700. Resistance falls toward $1.0640 with next potential downside support on trend near the $1.0500 round number.
NZDUSD continues to rebound with support rising toward $0.6570 from $0.6550. RSI nearing 50 where a breakout would confirm an upturn. Next potential resistance near $0.6595 then $0.6665.
AUDUSD has encountered some resistance near $0.7275 with more possible near $0.7355 but it remains in an uptrend of higher lows with support rising toward $0.7230 from $0.7180.
USDJPY continues to hold support at the bottom of its 122.00 to 123.70 sideways trading range but resistance dropping toward 123.00 and RSI indicating a downturn pending suggests a potential breakdown that could retest 121.80.
EURJPY remains under distribution falling to test the 130.00 round number which has held so far while resistance drops toward 130.30. RSI confirms downward pressure still increasing with next potential support near 128.35 then 127.00.
CADJPY has bounced back above 92.00 as it continues to trend sideways in a 91.50 to 93.50 channel. RSI sitting on 50 confirms neutral momentum.
USD/SGD’s declines are starting to accelerate with the pair falling below $1.4100 and on toward $1.4000 while RSI diving below 50 confirms momentum turning downward.
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