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Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: March 6 - 10

Published 2017-03-05, 06:17 a/m
© Reuters.  Oil ends up on Friday, but posts weekly loss
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Investing.com - Oil futures ended higher on Friday, as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar helped prices rebound from a sell-off that took them to multi-week lows in the prior session.

Oil prices typically strengthen when the U.S. currency weakens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Uncertainty surrounding Libya’s crude production following reports of violence near the war-torn country's biggest oil terminal also provided support.

Prices, however, still ended with a weekly loss as concern over rising shale production and record-high U.S. crude inventories offset optimism that OPEC and its allies have been following through on their commitment to cut production.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract climbed 72 cents, or around 1.4%, to end at $53.33 a barrel by close of trade Friday. The U.S. benchmark slumped more than 2% to $52.54 on Thursday, the lowest since February 8.

Despite Friday's gains, New York-traded oil futures declined 66 cents, or almost 1.2%, on the week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for May delivery added 82 cents, or about 1.5%, to settle at $55.90 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark touched $55.03 a day earlier, its cheapest since February 8.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures scored a loss of 9 cents, or less than 0.2%, the fourth straight weekly decline.

Concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand pressured crude prices.

Data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes on Friday revealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 7 last week, the seventh weekly increase in a row. That brought the total count to 609, the most since October 2015.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude supplies rose by 1.5 million barrels last week to yet another all-time high of 520.2 million. It was the eighth straight weekly build in U.S. stockpiles, feeding concerns about a global glut.

Oil prices have been trading in a narrow $5 range around the mid-$50s over the past two months as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between rising stockpiles and increased shale production in the U.S. and hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global producers.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of June, with compliance currently at around 94%.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April tacked on 0.9 cents, or about 0.6% to $1.653 on Friday. It ended down about 4.8% for the week.

April heating oil inched up 1.4 cents, or 0.9%, to finish at $1.593 a gallon. For the week, the fuel lost almost 3%.

Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 2.3 cents, or almost 0.8%, to $2.827 per million British thermal units. It posted a weekly gain of around 7.6%.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Meanwhile, traders will pay close attention to comments from global oil producers attending the annual CERAWeek Conference in Houston, Texas for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to cut output.

'Big Oil' figures attending the week-long event include OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Mohammed Barkindo, the oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, as well as executives from major oil companies such as Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and BP (LON:BP).

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, March 7

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 8

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, March 9

The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, March 10

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

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