(Adds latest prices)
Sept 8 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 7% on Tuesday along with a similar drop in crude prices with an increase in gas output and forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand in late September. O/R
That gas price decline came despite a daily increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports following hurricane shutdowns in late August and record sales to Mexico.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 18.8 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at a two-week low of $2.400 per million British thermal units. That was the contract's biggest one-day decline since early May, leaving the front-month down 13% from an eight-month high of $2.743 on Aug. 28.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to rise to 88.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, up from a three-month low of 87.6 bcfd in August. That is well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd.
With exports rising and temperatures expected to remain warmer-than-normal through mid September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from an average of 84.0 bcfd this week to 85.0 bcfd next week. That is higher than Refinitiv's forecasts on Friday before the long U.S. Labor Day weekend.
In late September, however, demand is expected to decline as air conditioning use drops as the weather cools.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise over 1.0 bcfd to 5.0 bcfd on Tuesday, the biggest one-day gain since March, as Cheniere Energy Inc 's LNG.A Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana continues to ramp up after shutting for Hurricane Laura.
Pipeline exports to Mexico were on track to rise to 6.2 bcfd in September, topping August's 5.9-bcfd record high.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Sep 4
Aug 28
Sep 4
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Sep 4
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+60
+35
+80
+68
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
26
23
10
24
31 U.S. GFS CDDs
124
137
164
130
114 U.S. GFS TDDs
150
160
174
154
145
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
87.0
88.4
88.3
93.2
79.7 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.3
5.7
6.7
7.8
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
93.3
94.1
95.0
101.0
87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.4
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
2.9
4.3
5.7
5.9
2.1 U.S. Commercial
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7 U.S. Residential
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.7 U.S. Power Plant
38.1
35.1
34.7
37.5
32.0 U.S. Industrial
21.5
21.6
21.4
21.2
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
74.3
71.6
71.2
73.6
67.4 Total U.S. Demand
85.4
84.0
85.0
87.3
76.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
1.80
2.32
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.38
1.58
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.67
3.62
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.34
1.45
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.96
2.19
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.75
1.58
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
7.97
5.01
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.69
2.08
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
20.50
22.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
21.25
25.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
25.25
25.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
37.40
105.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
120.00
97.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
102.00
78.00