(Adds link to LNG story update)
Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped on Friday to a nine-month high as the front-month rolled to a new more expensive contract and lots of production remained shut along the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Laura.
Traders noted prices were supported by pipeline exports to Mexico rising to a record high for a fourth day in a row and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports starting to edge up after dropping to an 18-month low earlier in the week after two LNG plants in Louisiana shut ahead of Laura.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for the most active October contract fell 5.3 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.657 per million British thermal units. Since October futures are trading much higher than where the September contract closed on Thursday, the front-month was still up about 3%, putting it at its highest settle since Nov. 22 for a second day in a row.
Gas futures have soared 92% since falling to a near 25-year low of $1.432 per mmBtu on June 26.
"Natural gas prices have mounted a monumental comeback within this two-month period," said Daniel Myers, market analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston, noting the recovery was comparable to the 87% rally between March-July of 2016. "Unlike 2016, this rally has taken place over 63 days, just over half the time."
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise on Friday for a second day in a row to 2.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). On Wednesday, pipeline flows to the LNG plants fell to 2.3 bcfd, their lowest since February 2019, after Cheniere Energy Inc LNG.A and Cameron LNG shut their Louisiana plants. output, meanwhile, was on track to drop to a three-month low of 85.3 bcfd on Friday as many wells in the Gulf remain shut for Laura, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Aug 28
Aug 21
Aug 28
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Aug 28
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+37
+45
+77
+66
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
12
9
4
10
13 U.S. GFS CDDs
175
182
179
168
147 U.S. GFS TDDs
187
191
183
178
160
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
88.6
86.5
86.0
92.7
79.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.6
7.1
7.1
7.7
8.0 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
95.2
93.5
93.1
100.4
87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
1.8
1.9
3.1
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.7
6.2
5.9
5.5
4.4 U.S. LNG Exports
4.7
3.8
3.2
6.5
2.0 U.S. Commercial
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5 U.S. Residential
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.3 U.S. Power Plant
41.8
42.5
39.4
33.9
36.6 U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.5
21.5
21.5
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
77.9
78.6
75.5
70.0
71.4 Total U.S. Demand
90.4
90.5
86.5
85.1
80.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.52
2.52
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.62
2.00
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.56
3.49
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.20
1.35
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.28
2.33
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.35
1.51
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
4.05
4.59
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.07
1.25
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
23.00
23.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
31.50
29.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
54.38
55.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
20.75
23.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
63.75
93.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
64.75
85.25