Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped to a three-week low on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and less air conditioning demand next week than previously expected.
That price decline came despite a continued increase in liquefied natural gas exports and record sales to Mexico. It also came ahead of a federal report expected to show a near-normal storage build last week.
Analysts said U.S. utilities injected 68 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 4. That compares with an increase of 80 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 68 bcf.
If correct, the increase would bring stockpiles to 3.523 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 13.1% above the five-year average of 3.116 tcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 4.9 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.357 per million British thermal units by 8:17 a.m. EDT (1217 GMT).
Even though the weather is expected to turn cooler in mid-September, Refinitiv projected U.S. demand would rise to an average of 85.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week, from 84.0 bcfd this week, due to an increase in exports. That forecast for next week, however, is lower than Refinitiv's projection on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals was on track to rise for a second month in a row for the first time since February to 4.4 bcfd in September as Cheniere Energy Inc 's LNG.A Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana ramps up after shutting in late August for Hurricane Laura. demand destruction caused U.S. LNG exports to drop every month from March to July when flows to plants fell to a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd as buyers canceled cargoes. Flows to LNG export terminals hit a record 8.7 bcfd in February.
Week ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Sep 4
Aug 28
Sep 4
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Sep 4
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+68
+35
+80
+68
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
33
31
10
24
35 U.S. GFS CDDs
112
120
164
130
107 U.S. GFS TDDs
145
151
174
154
142
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
87.0
88.3
88.3
93.2
79.7 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.3
5.8
6.6
7.8
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
93.3
94.1
94.9
101.0
87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.2
6.0
6.1
5.4
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
2.9
4.8
6.5
5.9
2.1 U.S. Commercial
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7 U.S. Residential
3.7
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.7 U.S. Power Plant
38.1
34.3
34.0
37.5
32.0 U.S. Industrial
21.5
21.6
21.4
21.2
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
74.3
71.0
70.7
73.6
67.4 Total U.S. Demand
85.4
84.0
85.4
87.3
76.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.21
2.35
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.64
1.73
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.54
3.56
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.51
1.54
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.95
1.98
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
2.55
2.33
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.12
3.23
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.20
0.88
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
39.75
35.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
27.75
25.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
21.50
18.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
33.77
38.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
35.75
31.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
37.75
34.75