On Wednesday, Mizuho Securities adjusted its price target for Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE), reducing it to $10.00 from the prior $12.00, while maintaining a Neutral stance on the stock. The adjustment follows Sage Therapeutics' third-quarter financial results, which saw collaboration revenues from Zurzuvae slightly surpass expectations and lower-than-anticipated spending.
The company's Zurzuvae product has seen a positive trajectory, with a 40% quarter-over-quarter increase in shipped-and-delivered prescriptions. Despite this growth, the firm remains cautious. The hesitancy stems from uncertainties regarding the broader market adoption of Zurzuvae, with the firm reluctant to forecast peak sales exceeding $300 million until there is clearer visibility on its uptake.
Additionally, the analyst expressed low confidence in the fourth-quarter 2024 Phase 2 DIMENSION trial results for dalzanemdor in Huntington's disease. The trial's outcome is perceived as highly uncertain, with significant potential upside. However, the anticipation is tempered by the prospect of a period lacking in major developments next year as Sage Therapeutics focuses on re-prioritizing its early-stage pipeline.
The decision to lower the price target is primarily influenced by the discontinuation of sales forecasts for dalzanemdor following the unsuccessful Phase 2 PRECEDENT trial in Alzheimer's disease. The failure of this trial has necessitated a revision of the company's financial projections and contributed to the more conservative price target set by Mizuho.
In other recent news, Sage Therapeutics has undergone significant changes, with Piper Sandler, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS), and H.C. Wainwright all adjusting their price targets for the company. Piper Sandler cut its target to $26, while Scotiabank and H.C. Wainwright both lowered their targets to $14. Despite these reductions, Sage Therapeutics reported a strong performance for its product Zurzuvae, which generated $11 million in collaboration revenue from approximately 2,000 prescriptions in the third quarter of 2024.
The company also revealed a significant restructuring plan, including a 33% reduction in its workforce and changes in executive roles. Despite these changes, Sage Therapeutics recorded a 49% quarter-over-quarter growth in sales for Zurzuvae, a product marketed in partnership with Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB). However, Sage and Biogen recently discontinued the development of zuranolone for major depressive disorder.
Furthermore, Sage Therapeutics is preparing for the topline results from its Phase 2 DIMENSION trial involving 178 Huntington's disease patients in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts from Piper Sandler, Scotiabank, H.C. Wainwright, and Raymond James have all provided their perspective on these developments.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Mizuho's analysis of Sage Therapeutics. The company's market capitalization stands at $517.71 million, reflecting the market's current valuation. Sage's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $97.24 million, with a remarkable revenue growth of 837.55% over the same period. This aligns with the positive trajectory of Zurzuvae mentioned in the article.
InvestingPro Tips highlight some key aspects of Sage's financial situation. The company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which could provide some financial flexibility as it navigates the uncertainties surrounding Zurzuvae's market adoption. However, Sage is also quickly burning through cash, a factor that investors should consider given the analyst's cautious stance on future sales projections.
Another relevant InvestingPro Tip notes that analysts do not anticipate the company will be profitable this year, which is consistent with Mizuho's conservative outlook and price target reduction. This information, along with 7 additional tips, is available on InvestingPro, offering investors a more comprehensive view of Sage Therapeutics' financial health and market position.
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