On Wednesday, RBC (TSX:RY) Capital reiterated its Outperform rating for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) with a maintained price target of $235.00. The firm anticipates the upcoming HELIOS-B trial data, expected in the coming weeks, to potentially influence the stock's performance.
The trial extension, according to the firm, is a positive move, providing Alnylam with additional opportunities for success with both intent-to-treat (ITT (NYSE:ITT)) and monotherapy (mono) endpoints, compared to the previous single ITT endpoint. While acknowledging the complexities of predicting outcomes due to various unknowns, RBC's data science team, RBC ElementsTM, has indicated that there is a possibility for a significant benefit for overall survival (OS) if the active arm's results mirror those of the APOLLO-B trial and the placebo arm follows the control arm of a similar study.
RBC outlined three potential scenarios for Alnylam's stock value: a 10% probability of a "sugarpill" case that could see the stock drop to $90, an 80% probability "base" case with a convincing trial outcome on mono that could lead to a stock price of $180, and a 10% probability "bluesky" case where the trial succeeds on all counts, including OS, potentially raising the stock value to $250. With Alnylam's shares trading around $150, RBC views the risk-reward balance favorably leaning towards a long position.
The firm's positive outlook is set to be further discussed with two new key opinion leaders (KOLs) at an event scheduled for 10am ET today. This discussion aims to provide additional insights into the potential impact of the HELIOS-B trial data on Alnylam's stock.
In other recent news, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals has reported impressive Q1 2024 results with revenues hitting $365 million, a 32% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's Transthyretin (TTR) franchise continues to fuel this growth, recording a 29% increase year-over-year.
Alnylam shared updates on its clinical programs, including positive results from the KARDIA-2 Phase 2 study for zilebesiran in hypertension and the expected results from the HELIOS-B Phase 3 study for vutrisiran in TTR amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy. The company is aiming for net product revenues between $1.4 billion and $1.5 billion for 2024. Alnylam is also preparing for potential product launches, including AMVUTTRA for the cardiomyopathy market.
Alnylam's commitment to enhancing patient access and affordability for its products remains a key focus. Furthermore, the company plans to file Investigational New Drug applications for nine programs by the end of 2025, indicating a robust pipeline.
InvestingPro Insights
As Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALNY) awaits the pivotal HELIOS-B trial results, the company's financial health and market performance metrics offer additional insights. The latest data from InvestingPro shows a market capitalization of $19.79 billion, reflecting the company's substantial size in the biopharmaceutical industry. Despite the challenges of profitability, with analysts not expecting the company to be profitable this year, Alnylam's liquid assets exceed its short-term obligations, indicating a solid financial position to weather near-term uncertainties.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that the company operates with a moderate level of debt and has seen a strong return over the last five years, although it does not pay a dividend to shareholders. The revenue growth is particularly robust, with a 75.2% increase over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024, and a gross profit margin of 83.95%, showcasing the company's ability to generate substantial income relative to its sales.
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