U.Today - Crypto analyst posed an interesting question to his Twitter followers. "Still waiting for Bitcoin to crash to $12,000?" he asked.The industry saw liquidity problems, bankruptcies and the collapse of Terra and FTX in the past year and forecasts that the Bitcoin price would fall to $12,000 began to circulate. Shortly after the Terra collapse in June 2022, CNBC host Jim Cramer predicted that the price of Bitcoin would drop to $12,000.
To control inflation, the Fed began raising interest rates aggressively in 2022, which hurt risk assets including Bitcoin. According to estimates, the value of the entire cryptocurrency market declined by around $1.4 trillion last year as a result of falling prices.
Given the events that unfolded in the past year, some projections made at the beginning of the year suggested that would drop as low as $12,000 before rising again. These forecasts proved incorrect, as Bitcoin fell short of the $12,000 target and instead reached yearly highs of $31,000 in the first half of 2023.
Will Bitcoin crash to $12,000?
Not ruling out the chances of a black swan, an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences, Ali says Bitcoin has a lower likelihood of traveling down to the $12,000 mark.Citing on-chain data, Ali says the odds favor the bulls. This is because more holders bought between $16,000 and $30,000 than those who bought between $31,000 and $42,000. Thus, more reasonably, bulls would jealously guard the range between $16,000 and $30,000 as the stakes are higher.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.28% in the last 24 hours to $30,354.
On-chain analytics firm highlights the importance of where Bitcoin presently trades. It says around 592,000 Bitcoin have a purchasing price of $30,200, near the current spot price.
This small price fluctuations in either direction might send 3.45% of the circulating supply into a position of profit or loss.